Monday, 14/09/2026 at 21:00
Full timeLeeds United 4:1 Newcastle United
Leeds United were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 4–1. The biggest difference was Leeds United's attack: 2.08 xG against 1.64 projected (+0.44). Newcastle United produced 0.88 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.32).
Goals
- 32' Lewis Miley (o.g.) Leeds United · 0.10 xG chance 1–0
- 34' Jayden Bogle Leeds United · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
- 45' Dominic Calvert-Lewin Leeds United · 0.19 xG chance 3–0
- 59' Noah Okafor Leeds United · 0.05 xG chance 4–0
- 90' Bazoumana Touré Newcastle United · 0.27 xG chance 4–1
The model against the result
- Leeds United
- 46% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Newcastle United
- 25%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Leeds United produced 0.44 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 7
- On target
- 7
- 5
- Inside the box
- 10
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.12
- 0.12
- Open play xG
- 1.92
- 0.58
- Set-piece xG
- 0.06
- 0.24
- Penalties
- —
- —
Leeds United's shots add up to 1.98 xG and Newcastle United's to 0.82; the published figures are 2.08 and 0.88.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
23 shots · 2.80 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Leeds United
- Newcastle United
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.29 xG created 1.89 xGA
- D 1.34 created, 1.27 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- W 0.39 created, 3.06 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
- L 1.59 created, 2.61 conceded against West Ham United
- W 0.47 created, 0.66 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- D 1.43 created, 1.56 conceded against Brentford
- D 2.49 created, 2.19 conceded against Brighton & Hove Albion
1.09 xG created 1.56 xGA
- D 1.48 created, 1.10 conceded against Nottingham Forest
- W 1.73 created, 0.95 conceded against West Ham United
- L 0.31 created, 1.81 conceded against Fulham
- D 1.58 created, 2.98 conceded against Liverpool
- W 0.72 created, 1.12 conceded against Tottenham Hotspur
- D 0.71 created, 1.37 conceded against Bournemouth
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 opportunities flagged6 won1 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 2.10 | +5.8% | Won |
| Leeds United to win | 2.25 | +3.8% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +2.0% | Won |
| Leeds United to score | 1.22 | +1.5% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.62 | +0.3% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.80 | +0.1% | Won |
| Draw | 3.50 | +0.1% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United | 46.1% | 42.2% | +3.9 pp | 2.17 |
| Draw | 28.6% | 27.1% | +1.5 pp | 3.50 |
| Newcastle United | 25.3% | 30.6% | −5.4 pp | 3.96 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leeds United to score | 83.0% | 76.6% | +6.4 pp | 1.20 |
| Leeds United not to score | 17.0% | 23.4% | −6.4 pp | 5.90 |
| Newcastle United to score | 72.8% | 72.3% | +0.4 pp | 1.37 |
| Newcastle United not to score | 27.2% | 27.7% | −0.4 pp | 3.67 |
| Both teams to score | 62.1% | 57.7% | +4.4 pp | 1.61 |
| Both teams not to score | 37.9% | 42.3% | −4.4 pp | 2.64 |
| Leeds United 2+ goals | 50.4% | 44.3% | +6.1 pp | 1.98 |
| Leeds United at most 1 goal | 49.6% | 55.7% | −6.1 pp | 2.02 |
| Newcastle United 2+ goals | 34.3% | 37.5% | −3.2 pp | 2.91 |
| Newcastle United at most 1 goal | 65.7% | 62.5% | +3.2 pp | 1.52 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.6% | 76.2% | +5.4 pp | 1.23 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 18.4% | 23.8% | −5.4 pp | 5.44 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.6% | 52.6% | +3.0 pp | 1.80 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 44.4% | 47.4% | −3.0 pp | 2.25 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Leeds United sample
- 20 matches
- Newcastle United sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 12 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 12 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.