Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 17:00
6d 16h to kick-offBrinje Grosuplje – NK Maribor
Model updated 3 October, 21:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Brinje Grosuplje
- 22%
- Draw
- 30%
- NK Maribor
- 48%
| Brinje Grosuplje | Draw | NK Maribor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 4.45 | 3.38 | 2.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 3 outcomes.
-
Brinje Grosuplje
- Model
- 22.5%
- Market, margin removed
- 18.0%
- Probability gap
- +4.4 pp
- Edge
- +12.4%
- Fair odds
- 4.45
- Market odds
- 5.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.67
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.9%
-
Draw
- Model
- 29.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 23.1%
- Probability gap
- +6.5 pp
- Edge
- +15.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.38
- Market odds
- 3.90 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.55
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.9%
-
NK Maribor
- Model
- 47.9%
- Market, margin removed
- 58.8%
- Probability gap
- −10.9 pp
- Edge
- −26.5%
- Fair odds
- 2.09
- Market odds
- 1.53 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.19
- Bookmaker margin
- 10.9%
Outcomes with value
Brinje Grosuplje to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Best opportunity
Brinje Grosuplje to win
Model 22.5% vs. bookmaker 18.0%, margin removed.
Match result
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
Goals by team
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans NK Maribor
48% NK Maribor to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 6th
- NK Maribor attack v Brinje Grosuplje defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 10th
- NK Maribor defence v Brinje Grosuplje attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.94 vs -0.71
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.05 – 1.56
- Brinje Grosuplje v NK Maribor
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Brinje Grosuplje | NK Maribor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.25 · 10th | (better) 1.48 · 6th |
| xGA / match | 1.77 · 8th | (better) 0.84 · 1st |
| xGD / match | -0.52 · 9th | (better) +0.64 · 1st |
| xPts / match | 1.06 · 9th | (better) 1.84 · 1st |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.71 | (better) +0.94 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- NK Maribor clean sheet
- 32%
- NK Maribor 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.2%
- 1:2
- 11.2%
- 0:1
- 9.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Brinje Grosuplje sample
- 10 matches
- NK Maribor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Brinje Grosuplje
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Maribor
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Saturday, 03/10/2026 at 21:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.