Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 17:00
33d 10h to kick-offKalcer Radomlje – NK Celje
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Kalcer Radomlje
- 20%
- Draw
- 25%
- NK Celje
- 55%
| Kalcer Radomlje | Draw | NK Celje | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 5.03 | 3.94 | 1.83 |
- Total goals
- 3.13
- Over 2.5 goals
- 63%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Celje
55% NK Celje to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 10th
- NK Celje attack v Kalcer Radomlje defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 8th
- NK Celje defence v Kalcer Radomlje attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.58 vs -0.86
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.18 – 1.95
- Kalcer Radomlje v NK Celje
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Kalcer Radomlje | NK Celje |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.31 · 8th | (better) 1.59 · 3rd |
| xGA / match | 1.96 · 10th | (better) 1.05 · 2nd |
| xGD / match | -0.65 · 10th | (better) +0.54 · 2nd |
| xPts / match | 0.99 · 10th | (better) 1.78 · 2nd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.86 | (better) +0.58 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- NK Celje clean sheet
- 28%
- NK Celje 2+ goals
- 60%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 37%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 1:2
- 11.3%
- 0:2
- 8.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Kalcer Radomlje sample
- 20 matches
- NK Celje sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Kalcer Radomlje
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Celje
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.