NK Aluminij Kidričevo 0:1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana: xG & match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

Friday, 16/10/2026 at 17:30

Full time

Match report · PrvaLiga (Slovenia)

NK Aluminij Kidričevo Home 0.64 xG

NK Olimpija Ljubljana Away 3.07 xG

01 The scoreline reflected the chances

NK Olimpija Ljubljana were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 46%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was NK Olimpija Ljubljana's attack: 3.07 xG against 1.62 projected (+1.45). NK Aluminij Kidričevo produced 0.64 xG against 1.19 projected (−0.55).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

NK Aluminij Kidričevo: 25%
Draw: 29%
NK Olimpija Ljubljana: 46% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

NK Aluminij Kidričevo 1.19 0.64 -0.55

NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1.62 3.07 +1.45

NK Olimpija Ljubljana produced 1.45 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

NK Aluminij Kidričevo NK Olimpija Ljubljana

Shots: 6; 15
On target: 1; 6
Inside the box: 3; 8
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.20

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

NK Aluminij Kidričevo

1.69 xG created 1.76 xGA

W 3.53 created, 1.20 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
L 0.22 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Koper
D 1.19 created, 1.37 conceded against NK Bravo
W 1.89 created, 2.01 conceded against NŠ Mura
D 1.54 created, 2.91 conceded against NK Maribor
L 1.75 created, 2.22 conceded against NK Celje

NK Olimpija Ljubljana

1.86 xG created 1.38 xGA

D 0.46 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Maribor
W 1.92 created, 2.62 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
D 2.70 created, 1.27 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
W 2.87 created, 0.90 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
W 1.49 created, 0.60 conceded against FC Koper
L 1.73 created, 1.92 conceded against NK Bravo

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

NK Aluminij Kidričevo: 0 won · 1 drawn · 4 lost

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on NK Aluminij Kidričevo against NK Olimpija Ljubljana before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Both teams to score	1.73	+6.3%	Lost
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score	1.44	+4.6%	Lost
NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals	3.00	+1.8%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.25	+1.4%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+0.7%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Aluminij Kidričevo	25.3%	24.4%	+0.9 pp	3.95
Draw	28.8%	26.1%	+2.6 pp	3.47
NK Olimpija Ljubljana	45.9%	49.5%	−3.6 pp	2.18

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
NK Aluminij Kidričevo to score	72.5%	64.5%	+7.9 pp	1.38
NK Aluminij Kidričevo not to score	27.5%	35.5%	−7.9 pp	3.63
NK Olimpija Ljubljana to score	82.7%	79.4%	+3.3 pp	1.21
NK Olimpija Ljubljana not to score	17.3%	20.6%	−3.3 pp	5.77
Both teams to score	61.5%	53.7%	+7.9 pp	1.62
Both teams not to score	38.5%	46.3%	−7.9 pp	2.60
NK Aluminij Kidričevo 2+ goals	33.9%	31.3%	+2.7 pp	2.95
NK Aluminij Kidričevo at most 1 goal	66.1%	68.7%	−2.7 pp	1.51
NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals	49.7%	50.0%	−0.3 pp	2.01
NK Olimpija Ljubljana at most 1 goal	50.3%	50.0%	+0.3 pp	1.99
Over 1.5 goals	81.1%	75.0%	+6.1 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.9%	25.0%	−6.1 pp	5.30
Over 2.5 goals	54.9%	52.6%	+2.2 pp	1.82
Under 2.5 goals	45.1%	47.4%	−2.2 pp	2.22

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample: 20 matches
NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.