Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 15:00
Full timeNK Bravo 2:1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana
NK Olimpija Ljubljana were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. NK Bravo won 2–1. The biggest difference was NK Bravo's attack: 1.92 xG against 1.55 projected (+0.37).
The model against the result
- NK Bravo
- 36% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 36%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
NK Bravo produced 0.37 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 4
- 14
- On target
- 2
- 4
- Inside the box
- 4
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.48
- 0.12
Recent form
1.21 xG created 1.85 xGA
- D 1.28 created, 2.07 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- D 1.60 created, 2.12 conceded against FC Koper
- L 0.97 created, 1.55 conceded against NK Maribor
- W 1.63 created, 2.42 conceded against NŠ Mura
- D 1.37 created, 1.19 conceded against NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- W 0.42 created, 1.77 conceded against NK Celje
1.65 xG created 1.33 xGA
- L 0.44 created, 1.59 conceded against NK Celje
- D 0.46 created, 0.97 conceded against NK Maribor
- W 1.92 created, 2.62 conceded against NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- D 2.70 created, 1.27 conceded against Kalcer Radomlje
- W 2.87 created, 0.90 conceded against Brinje Grosuplje
- W 1.49 created, 0.60 conceded against FC Koper
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana 0:2 NK Bravo 18/07/2026 xG 1.76 – 2.44
- NK Bravo 2:1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 23/05/2026 xG 3.49 – 1.44
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1:2 NK Bravo 21/03/2026 xG 1.26 – 1.11
- NK Bravo 2:1 NK Olimpija Ljubljana 07/12/2025 xG 1.93 – 1.37
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana 1:2 NK Bravo 20/09/2025 xG 0.48 – 1.13
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged4 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| NK Bravo to win | 3.60 | +28.8% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +17.6% | Won |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +15.1% | Won |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +7.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NK Bravo | 35.8% | 25.3% | +10.5 pp | 2.80 |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.8% | +1.2 pp | 3.58 |
| NK Olimpija Ljubljana | 36.3% | 47.9% | −11.7 pp | 2.76 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 68.1% | 53.7% | +14.4 pp | 1.47 |
| Both teams not to score | 31.9% | 46.3% | −14.4 pp | 3.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.6% | 75.0% | +10.6 pp | 1.17 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 14.4% | 25.0% | −10.6 pp | 6.96 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.2% | 51.3% | +10.9 pp | 1.61 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 37.8% | 48.7% | −10.9 pp | 2.65 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Bravo sample
- 20 matches
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.