Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 17:00
13d 13h to kick-offNK Aluminij Kidričevo – NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 25%
- Draw
- 29%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 45%
| NK Aluminij Kidričevo | Draw | NK Olimpija Ljubljana | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.93 | 3.44 | 2.20 |
- Total goals
- 2.76
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Olimpija Ljubljana
45% NK Olimpija Ljubljana to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 7th
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana attack v NK Aluminij Kidričevo defence
- Defence
- 4th vs 9th
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana defence v NK Aluminij Kidričevo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.48 vs +0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.17 – 1.59
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo v NK Olimpija Ljubljana
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Aluminij Kidričevo | NK Olimpija Ljubljana |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.44 · 7th | (better) 1.66 · 2nd |
| xGA / match | 1.48 · 6th | (better) 1.32 · 4th |
| xGD / match | -0.05 · 6th | (better) +0.34 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 1.29 · 6th | (better) 1.61 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.04 | (better) +0.48 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana clean sheet
- 28%
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana 2+ goals
- 49%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 1:2
- 10.9%
- 0:2
- 7.9%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample
- 20 matches
- NK Olimpija Ljubljana sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Olimpija Ljubljana
- 5 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.