Wednesday, 28/10/2026 at 17:00
24d 15h to kick-offNK Nafta Lendava 1903 – NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 42%
- Draw
- 27%
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 31%
| NK Nafta Lendava 1903 | Draw | NK Aluminij Kidričevo | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.40 | 3.71 | 3.18 |
- Total goals
- 3.25
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%
- Both teams to score
- 70%
Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans NK Nafta Lendava 1903
42% NK Nafta Lendava 1903 to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 7th
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 attack v NK Aluminij Kidričevo defence
- Defence
- 9th vs 9th
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 defence v NK Aluminij Kidričevo attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.17 vs +0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.74 – 1.51
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 v NK Aluminij Kidričevo
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | NK Nafta Lendava 1903 | NK Aluminij Kidričevo |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.76 · 1st | 1.44 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.70 · 7th | (better) 1.48 · 6th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.05 · 5th | -0.05 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.37 · 5th | 1.29 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.17 | +0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 31% of the model's distribution.
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 clean sheet
- 19%
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 2+ goals
- 54%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 35%
- Both teams to score: no
- 30%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 12.1%
- 2:1
- 10.0%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- NK Nafta Lendava 1903 sample
- 11 matches
- NK Aluminij Kidričevo sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · NK Nafta Lendava 1903
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · NK Aluminij Kidričevo
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.