Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:30
19d 13h to kick-offAkhmat Grozny – Orenburg
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Akhmat Grozny
- 38%
- Draw
- 30%
- Orenburg
- 33%
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.66 | 3.35 | 3.07 |
- Total goals
- 2.77
- Over 2.5 goals
- 54%
- Both teams to score
- 62%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Akhmat Grozny
38% Akhmat Grozny to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 10th
- Akhmat Grozny attack v Orenburg defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 5th
- Akhmat Grozny defence v Orenburg attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.27 vs +0.33
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.44 – 1.33
- Akhmat Grozny v Orenburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Akhmat Grozny | Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.87 from 1 match | 1.44 from 1 match |
| xGA / match | 1.44 from 1 match | (better) 1.29 from 1 match |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.43 from 1 match | +0.15 from 1 match |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.69 from 1 match | 1.48 from 1 match |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.27 | (better) +0.33 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.
- Akhmat Grozny clean sheet
- 24%
- Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
- 43%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 46%
- Both teams to score: no
- 38%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.9%
- 2:1
- 9.9%
- 1:2
- 9.1%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akhmat Grozny sample
- 20 matches
- Orenburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Akhmat Grozny
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Orenburg
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.