Saturday, 07/11/2026 at 14:30
33d 7h to kick-offAkhmat Grozny – Rodina Moscow
Model updated 5 October, 06:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Akhmat Grozny
- 44%
- Draw
- 28%
- Rodina Moscow
- 28%
| Akhmat Grozny | Draw | Rodina Moscow | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.28 | 3.56 | 3.57 |
- Total goals
- 2.99
- Over 2.5 goals
- 59%
- Both teams to score
- 65%
One of these teams has only 1 match in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Akhmat Grozny
44% Akhmat Grozny to win
- Attack
- 12th vs 15th
- Akhmat Grozny attack v Rodina Moscow defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 7th
- Akhmat Grozny defence v Rodina Moscow attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.27 vs -0.11
- xGD per match, last match
- Projected goals
- 1.67 – 1.33
- Akhmat Grozny v Rodina Moscow
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 1 match, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Akhmat Grozny | Rodina Moscow |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 1.87 from 1 match | (better) 2.51 from 1 match |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.44 from 1 match | 2.62 from 1 match |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.43 from 1 match | -0.11 from 1 match |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.69 from 1 match | 1.33 from 1 match |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.27 | (better) -0.11 from 1 match |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 32% of the model's distribution.
- Akhmat Grozny clean sheet
- 24%
- Akhmat Grozny 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score: no
- 35%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 13.5%
- 2:1
- 10.7%
- 1:2
- 8.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Akhmat Grozny sample
- 20 matches
- Rodina Moscow sample
- 1 match
- Home xG sample · Akhmat Grozny
- 0 matches
- Away xG sample · Rodina Moscow
- 1 match
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 06:30
Warnings
- Rodina Moscow has only 1 match in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.