Sunday, 08/11/2026 at 12:00
32d 20h to kick-offKrylya Sovetov Samara – Orenburg
Model updated 6 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 29%
- Draw
- 29%
- Orenburg
- 42%
| Krylya Sovetov Samara | Draw | Orenburg | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.44 | 3.44 | 2.39 |
- Total goals
- 2.86
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%
- Both teams to score
- 63%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Orenburg
42% Orenburg to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 14th
- Orenburg attack v Krylya Sovetov Samara defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 14th
- Orenburg defence v Krylya Sovetov Samara attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.33 vs +0.02
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.30 – 1.56
- Krylya Sovetov Samara v Orenburg
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Krylya Sovetov Samara | Orenburg |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.62 from 1 match | 1.44 from 1 match |
| xGA / match | 2.51 from 1 match | (better) 1.29 from 1 match |
| xGD / match | +0.11 from 1 match | (better) +0.15 from 1 match |
| xPts / match | 1.46 from 1 match | (better) 1.48 from 1 match |
| Last 6 xGD / match | +0.02 | (better) +0.33 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 33% of the model's distribution.
- Orenburg clean sheet
- 25%
- Orenburg 2+ goals
- 48%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 44%
- Both teams to score: no
- 37%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 1:2
- 10.5%
- 2:1
- 8.5%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Krylya Sovetov Samara sample
- 20 matches
- Orenburg sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Krylya Sovetov Samara
- 1 match
- Away xG sample · Orenburg
- 0 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 15:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.