xgEdge

Expected goals

Celtic expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Celtic's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Celtic xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
2.77 xG per match
#1/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
19.39 7 matches
Defence
0.89 xGA per match
#1/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
6.26 7 matches
xG difference
+1.88 xGD per match
#1/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
+13.13 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
2.35 xPts per match
#1/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
16.44 vs 18 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Celtic's underlying numbers are league-leading. They rank #1 for xG difference at +1.88 per match, driven by both elite shot volume and the league's best chance quality. Their 14 goals are 5.39 below 19.39 xG, while 18 points are 1.56 above 16.44 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
14 19.39 -5.39 scored 5.39 fewer than xG outside normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
4 6.26 -2.26 conceded 2.26 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
18 16.44 +1.56 1.56 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Celtic are 5.39 goals below their xG after 7 matches.

Goals
14
xG
19.39
Gap
-5.39
Mon 03/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Wed 09/09 Sun 20/09 -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 +1 -1.55 -2.19 -3.06 -2.53 -3.46 -4.68 -5.39 -1.55 -0.64 -0.87 +0.53 -0.93 -1.22 -0.71 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Celtic: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Mon 03/08 Dundee FC 1 2.55 -1.55 -1.55
Sun 09/08 Kilmarnock 5 5.64 -0.64 -2.19
Sat 29/08 Falkirk FC 2 2.87 -0.87 -3.06
Wed 02/09 Aberdeen 3 2.47 +0.53 -2.53
Sat 05/09 St. Mirren 2 2.93 -0.93 -3.46
Wed 09/09 St. Johnstone 1 2.22 -1.22 -4.68
Sun 20/09 Rangers 0 0.71 -0.71 -5.39

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Celtic xG trend

Current form +1.96 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 6 of 7 matches. The only negative was against Rangers on Sun 20/09 (-0.54).

npxG · last 6
2.82
npxGA · last 6
0.87
-1 0 +1 +2 +3 +4 +5 +2.09 Mon 03/08 +4.85 Sun 09/08 +2.22 Sat 29/08 +1.81 Wed 02/09 +1.98 Sat 05/09 +1.42 Wed 09/09 -0.54 Sun 20/09 +1.98 season avg
Celtic: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Mon 03/08 Dundee FC 2.56 0.47 +2.09 +2.09
Sun 09/08 Kilmarnock 5.71 0.86 +4.85 +3.47
Sat 29/08 Falkirk FC 2.88 0.66 +2.22 +3.05
Wed 02/09 Aberdeen 2.47 0.66 +1.81 +2.74
Sat 05/09 St. Mirren 2.93 0.95 +1.98 +2.59
Wed 09/09 St. Johnstone 2.23 0.81 +1.42 +2.40
Sun 20/09 Rangers 0.71 1.25 -0.54 +1.98

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 2.78 npxG and 0.81 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 11 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
−0.13 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 6 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.01 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.13 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 11 hardest of 12

  1. Rangers Home +0.85
  2. St. Johnstone Away −0.23
  3. St. Mirren Away −0.08
  4. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  5. Falkirk FC Home −0.15
  6. Kilmarnock Away −0.52
  7. Dundee FC Home −0.48

Last 5

+0.01 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 6 hardest of 12

  1. Rangers Home +0.85
  2. St. Johnstone Away −0.23
  3. St. Mirren Away −0.08
  4. Aberdeen Home −0.33
  5. Falkirk FC Home −0.15

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Celtic shots and chance quality

High volume, high quality. Celtic take 20.0 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.14 npxG a shot (league 0.10), =1 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #1 for quality. 74% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 7% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
20.0 shots per match
=1/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
140 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.14 npxG per shot
#1/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
19.49 npxG from 140 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
11.1 shots per match
#3/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
78 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.07 npxGA per shot
#1/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
5.66 npxGA from 78 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

74% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 104 of 140 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

63% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 49 of 78 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

93% open play · 7% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 1.3 of 19.5 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

64% open play · 36% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.0 of 5.5 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Celtic home and away xG

Celtic per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 4 3
xG / match 2.15 3.60
xGA / match 0.72 1.12
xGD / match +1.43 +2.47
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.23 2.50

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Celtic match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
2.77
xGA / match
0.89
xGD / match
+1.88
Points
18 of 21
  1. Sun 20/09 Rangers H Weakest underlying xG 0.71 xGA 1.23 xGD -0.52
  2. Wed 09/09 St. Johnstone A xG 2.22 xGA 0.77 xGD +1.45
  3. Sat 05/09 St. Mirren A xG 2.93 xGA 1.74 P xGD +1.19
  4. Wed 02/09 Aberdeen H xG 2.47 xGA 0.66 xGD +1.81
  5. Sat 29/08 Falkirk FC H xG 2.87 xGA 0.53 xGD +2.34
  6. Sun 09/08 Kilmarnock A Best underlying xG 5.64 xGA 0.86 xGD +4.78
  7. Mon 03/08 Dundee FC H xG 2.55 xGA 0.47 xGD +2.08

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 5.64. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Celtic in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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