Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:00
14d 14h to kick-offCeltic – Heart of Midlothian
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Celtic
- 52%
- Draw
- 28%
- Heart of Midlothian
- 20%
| Celtic | Draw | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.91 | 3.56 | 5.09 |
- Total goals
- 2.69
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 57%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Celtic
52% Celtic to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 3rd
- Celtic attack v Heart of Midlothian defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 4th
- Celtic defence v Heart of Midlothian attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.84 vs +0.63
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.68 – 1.01
- Celtic v Heart of Midlothian
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Celtic | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.77 · 1st | 1.62 · 4th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.89 · 1st | 1.26 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.88 · 1st | +0.35 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.35 · 1st | 1.68 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.84 | +0.63 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Celtic clean sheet
- 34%
- Celtic 2+ goals
- 52%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 43%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.3%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 9.7%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Celtic sample
- 20 matches
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Celtic
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · Heart of Midlothian
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.