Saturday, 22/08/2026 at 16:00
Kicked offFalkirk FC – Heart of Midlothian
Model not yet run Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Falkirk FC
- 32%
- Draw
- 33%
- Heart of Midlothian
- 34%
| Falkirk FC | Draw | Heart of Midlothian | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 3.08 | 3.01 | 2.91 |
- Total goals
- 2.29
- Over 2.5 goals
- 41%
- Both teams to score
- 52%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model can't separate them
34% Heart of Midlothian to win
- Attack
- 4th vs 8th
- Heart of Midlothian attack v Falkirk FC defence
- Defence
- 3rd vs 9th
- Heart of Midlothian defence v Falkirk FC attack
- Recent xG form
- -0.13 vs -0.31
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.13 – 1.16
- Falkirk FC v Heart of Midlothian
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Falkirk FC | Heart of Midlothian |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | 0.90 · 11th | (better) 1.62 · 4th |
| xGA / match | 1.66 · 11th | (better) 1.26 · 3rd |
| xGD / match | -0.76 · 11th | (better) +0.35 · 3rd |
| xPts / match | 0.86 · 11th | (better) 1.68 · 3rd |
| Last 6 xGD / match | -0.31 | (better) -0.13 |
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Falkirk FC sample
- 20 matches
- Heart of Midlothian sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Falkirk FC
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · Heart of Midlothian
- 4 matches
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.