xgEdge

Expected goals

Falkirk FC expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Scottish Premiership · after 7 matches · updated 1 Oct

Falkirk FC's attacking and defensive expected goals in Scottish Premiership 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

Falkirk FC xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
0.90 xG per match
#11/12
Attack (xG per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Celtic 2.77
#2 Rangers 2.03
#3 Hibernian 1.75
#4 Heart of Midlothian 1.62
#5 Dundee United 1.56
#6 St. Mirren 1.44
#7 Motherwell 1.36
#8 St. Johnstone 1.30
#9 Dundee FC 1.28
#10 Aberdeen 1.00
#11 Falkirk FC 0.90
#12 Kilmarnock 0.89
League avg
1.49
Total
6.33 7 matches
Defence
1.66 xGA per match
#11/12
Defence (xGA per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Celtic 0.89
#2 Rangers 1.00
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.26
#4 Dundee United 1.44
#5 St. Johnstone 1.52
#6 Hibernian 1.55
#7 Dundee FC 1.56
#8 St. Mirren 1.57
#9 Aberdeen 1.57
#10 Motherwell 1.58
#11 Falkirk FC 1.66
#12 Kilmarnock 2.28
League avg
1.49
Total
11.64 7 matches
xG difference
-0.76 xGD per match
#11/12
xG difference (xGD per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Celtic +1.88
#2 Rangers +1.03
#3 Heart of Midlothian +0.35
#4 Hibernian +0.20
#5 Dundee United +0.11
#6 St. Mirren -0.12
#7 Motherwell -0.22
#8 St. Johnstone -0.23
#9 Dundee FC -0.28
#10 Aberdeen -0.57
#11 Falkirk FC -0.76
#12 Kilmarnock -1.39
League avg
0.00
Total
-5.31 7 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
0.86 xPts per match
#11/12
Expected points (xPts per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Celtic 2.35
#2 Rangers 2.01
#3 Heart of Midlothian 1.68
#4 Hibernian 1.54
#5 Dundee United 1.43
#6 Motherwell 1.37
#7 St. Mirren 1.33
#8 Dundee FC 1.24
#9 St. Johnstone 1.20
#10 Aberdeen 0.96
#11 Falkirk FC 0.86
#12 Kilmarnock 0.71
League avg
1.39
Total
5.99 vs 6 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 7 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

Falkirk FC's underlying numbers are among the weakest in Scottish Premiership. They rank #11 for xG difference at -0.76 per match, from low shot volume at about average chance quality. Their 6 goals are 0.33 below 6.33 xG, while 6 points are 0.01 above 5.99 xPts. After only 7 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG
6 6.33 -0.33 scored 0.33 fewer than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
9 11.64 -2.64 conceded 2.64 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
6 5.99 +0.01 0.01 points above xPts within normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

Falkirk FC are 0.33 goals below their xG after 7 matches. The gap was widest at -1.15, against Motherwell on Sun 09/08.

Goals
6
xG
6.33
Gap
-0.33
Sat 01/08 Sun 09/08 Sat 29/08 Wed 02/09 Sat 05/09 Tue 15/09 Sat 19/09 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.71 -1.15 -0.68 -0.53 -0.38 -0.43 -0.33 -0.71 -0.44 +0.47 +0.15 +0.15 -0.05 +0.10 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
Falkirk FC: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sat 01/08 St. Mirren 0 0.71 -0.71 -0.71
Sun 09/08 Motherwell 0 0.44 -0.44 -1.15
Sat 29/08 Celtic 1 0.53 +0.47 -0.68
Wed 02/09 Rangers 1 0.85 +0.15 -0.53
Sat 05/09 Dundee United 1 0.85 +0.15 -0.38
Tue 15/09 Heart of Midlothian 2 2.05 -0.05 -0.43
Sat 19/09 St. Johnstone 1 0.90 +0.10 -0.33

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

Falkirk FC xG trend

Current form -0.69 npxGD per match

The last 6 matches with xG.

Out-created the opponent in 2 of 7 matches. The worst was against Celtic on Sat 29/08 (-2.22).

npxG · last 6
0.98
npxGA · last 6
1.67
-3 -2 -1 0 +1 -0.93 Sat 01/08 -0.46 Sun 09/08 -2.22 Sat 29/08 -0.64 Wed 02/09 -1.41 Sat 05/09 +0.26 Tue 15/09 +0.34 Sat 19/09 -0.72 season avg
Falkirk FC: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sat 01/08 St. Mirren 0.71 1.64 -0.93 -0.93
Sun 09/08 Motherwell 0.43 0.89 -0.46 -0.70
Sat 29/08 Celtic 0.66 2.88 -2.22 -1.20
Wed 02/09 Rangers 0.94 1.58 -0.64 -1.06
Sat 05/09 Dundee United 0.87 2.28 -1.41 -1.13
Tue 15/09 Heart of Midlothian 1.98 1.72 +0.26 -0.90
Sat 19/09 St. Johnstone 1.02 0.68 +0.34 -0.72

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 0.94 npxG and 1.67 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 1 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.22 xG vs league average
Over 7 league matches
Last 5
number 1 hardest of 12 in Scottish Premiership
+0.31 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

+0.22 xG vs league average · over 7 matches · number 1 hardest of 12

  1. St. Johnstone Away −0.23
  2. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18
  3. Dundee United Away −0.09
  4. Rangers Home +0.85
  5. Celtic Away +0.82
  6. Motherwell Away +0.05
  7. St. Mirren Home −0.08

Last 5

+0.31 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 1 hardest of 12

  1. St. Johnstone Away −0.23
  2. Heart of Midlothian Home +0.18
  3. Dundee United Away −0.09
  4. Rangers Home +0.85
  5. Celtic Away +0.82

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

Falkirk FC shots and chance quality

Low volume, average quality. Falkirk FC take 10.7 shots a match (league 14.2) at 0.09 npxG a shot (league 0.10), #9 in Scottish Premiership for volume and #9 for quality. 64% of their shots come from inside the box (league 68%), and set pieces produce 14% of their npxG (league 22%).

Attack

Shot volume
10.7 shots per match
#9/12
Shot volume (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
=1 Celtic 20.0
=1 Rangers 20.0
#3 Hibernian 16.9
#4 Heart of Midlothian 16.0
#5 Dundee United 15.9
#6 Motherwell 14.6
#7 St. Mirren 14.3
#8 Dundee FC 11.3
#9 Falkirk FC 10.7
#10 St. Johnstone 10.6
=11 Aberdeen 9.9
=11 Kilmarnock 9.9
League avg
14.2
Total
75 shots from 7 matches
Chance quality
0.09 npxG per shot
#9/12
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Celtic 0.14
#2 St. Johnstone 0.12
#3 Dundee FC 0.10
#4 Kilmarnock 0.09
#5 St. Mirren 0.09
#6 Rangers 0.09
#7 Dundee United 0.09
#8 Heart of Midlothian 0.09
#9 Falkirk FC 0.09
#10 Aberdeen 0.09
#11 Hibernian 0.08
#12 Motherwell 0.08
League avg
0.10
Total
6.61 npxG from 75 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
15.0 shots per match
#7/12
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Rangers 9.1
#2 Heart of Midlothian 9.7
#3 Celtic 11.1
#4 Hibernian 12.4
#5 St. Johnstone 12.6
#6 St. Mirren 14.9
#7 Falkirk FC 15.0
#8 Motherwell 15.1
#9 Dundee United 15.7
#10 Aberdeen 16.7
#11 Kilmarnock 18.4
#12 Dundee FC 19.0
League avg
14.2
Total
105 shots allowed from 7 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.11 npxGA per shot
#9/12
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Scottish Premiership, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Celtic 0.07
#2 Dundee FC 0.08
#3 Aberdeen 0.08
#4 Motherwell 0.08
#5 Dundee United 0.08
#6 Rangers 0.10
#7 St. Mirren 0.10
#8 Hibernian 0.11
#9 Falkirk FC 0.11
#10 Heart of Midlothian 0.11
#11 Kilmarnock 0.12
#12 St. Johnstone 0.13
League avg
0.10
Total
11.67 npxGA from 105 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

64% inside the box

League avg 68%

From 48 of 75 shots over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

72% allowed inside the box

League avg 68%

From 76 of 105 shots allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

86% open play · 14% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 0.9 of 6.4 npxG over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

81% open play · 19% set pieces

League avg 22% set pieces

From 2.2 of 11.7 npxG allowed over 7 matches

Early-season figure: after 7 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

Falkirk FC home and away xG

Falkirk FC per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home Away
Matches 3 4
xG / match 1.20 0.68
xGA / match 1.64 1.68
xGD / match -0.44 -1.00
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 1.00 0.75

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every Falkirk FC match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
7
xG / match
0.90
xGA / match
1.66
xGD / match
-0.76
Points
6 of 21
  1. Sat 19/09 St. Johnstone A xG 0.90 xGA 0.68 xGD +0.22
  2. Tue 15/09 Heart of Midlothian H Best underlying xG 2.05 xGA 1.72 xGD +0.33
  3. Sat 05/09 Dundee United A xG 0.85 xGA 2.27 xGD -1.42
  4. Wed 02/09 Rangers H xG 0.85 xGA 1.57 xGD -0.72
  5. Sat 29/08 Celtic A Weakest underlying xG 0.53 xGA 2.87 xGD -2.34
  6. Sun 09/08 Motherwell A xG 0.44 xGA 0.89 xGD -0.45
  7. Sat 01/08 St. Mirren H xG 0.71 xGA 1.64 xGD -0.93

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

Falkirk FC in Scottish Premiership

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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