Heart of Midlothian 2:1 Dundee FC: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 16:00

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Heart of Midlothian Home 1.87 xG · 27 shots

Dundee FC Away 0.51 xG · 4 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Heart of Midlothian were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 56%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Dundee FC's attack: 0.51 xG against 0.93 projected (−0.42).

Goals

17' Bradley Fink Dundee FC · 0.29 xG chance 0–1
84' Cláudio Braga (pen.) Heart of Midlothian · 0.82 xG chance 1–1
90' Sabah Kerjota Heart of Midlothian · 0.04 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Heart of Midlothian: 56% What happened
Draw: 27%
Dundee FC: 17%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Heart of Midlothian 1.74 1.87 +0.13

Dundee FC 0.93 0.51 -0.42

Dundee FC produced 0.42 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Heart of Midlothian Dundee FC

Shots: 27; 4
On target: 7; 1
Inside the box: 17; 2
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.12
Open play xG: 0.69; 0.38
Set-piece xG: 0.39; 0.11
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.08 for Heart of Midlothian and 0.51 for Dundee FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 2.39 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Heart of Midlothian
Dundee FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Heart of Midlothian

1.25 xG created 1.53 xGA

W 0.59 created, 0.30 conceded against Falkirk FC
L 0.96 created, 2.82 conceded against Celtic
L 1.34 created, 2.66 conceded against Aberdeen
W 2.09 created, 0.54 conceded against Dundee United
W 1.71 created, 1.16 conceded against St. Johnstone
W 0.82 created, 1.70 conceded against Hibernian

Dundee FC

1.48 xG created 1.55 xGA

W 1.78 created, 1.29 conceded against Aberdeen
L 0.47 created, 2.55 conceded against Celtic
W 2.22 created, 0.70 conceded against Aberdeen
W 1.68 created, 1.23 conceded against Dundee United
L 0.78 created, 2.42 conceded against Hibernian
D 1.97 created, 1.08 conceded against St. Johnstone

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Heart of Midlothian: 3 won · 0 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Heart of Midlothian against Dundee FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Dundee FC to win	7.00	+19.7%	Lost
Draw	4.33	+18.5%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.38	+15.5%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+6.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Heart of Midlothian	55.6%	65.3%	−9.8 pp	1.80
Draw	27.3%	21.4%	+5.9 pp	3.66
Dundee FC	17.1%	13.3%	+3.8 pp	5.85

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.7%	54.7%	+1.0 pp	1.80
Both teams not to score	44.3%	45.3%	−1.0 pp	2.26
Over 1.5 goals	78.8%	81.1%	−2.3 pp	1.27
Under 1.5 goals	21.2%	18.9%	+2.3 pp	4.71
Over 2.5 goals	51.4%	60.2%	−8.8 pp	1.95
Under 2.5 goals	48.6%	39.8%	+8.8 pp	2.06

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Heart of Midlothian sample: 20 matches
Dundee FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.