Hibernian 1:3 Heart of Midlothian: xG & match report · Scottish Premiership

Thursday, 03/09/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Scottish Premiership

Hibernian Home 1.70 xG · 17 shots

Heart of Midlothian Away 0.82 xG · 12 shots

13 The result went against the chances

Heart of Midlothian were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 3–1. The biggest difference was Hibernian's attack: 1.70 xG against 1.16 projected (+0.54). Heart of Midlothian produced 0.82 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.41).

Goals

13' James Wilson Heart of Midlothian · 0.13 xG chance 0–1
43' Laurent Mendy Heart of Midlothian · 0.09 xG chance 0–2
51' Adam Mayor Hibernian · 0.04 xG chance 1–2
66' Josh McPake Heart of Midlothian · 0.06 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Hibernian: 32%
Draw: 32%
Heart of Midlothian: 36% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Hibernian 1.16 1.70 +0.54

Heart of Midlothian 1.23 0.82 -0.41

Hibernian produced 0.54 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Hibernian Heart of Midlothian

Shots: 17; 12
On target: 4; 5
Inside the box: 12; 9
xG per shot: 0.10; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.61; 0.72
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.11
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.82 for Heart of Midlothian.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

29 shots · 2.53 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Hibernian
Heart of Midlothian
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Hibernian

1.57 xG created 1.31 xGA

W 1.07 created, 0.48 conceded against Falkirk FC
W 1.54 created, 1.45 conceded against Rangers
L 0.70 created, 1.07 conceded against Motherwell
L 1.92 created, 2.00 conceded against Motherwell
W 1.74 created, 2.05 conceded against Rangers
W 2.42 created, 0.78 conceded against Dundee FC

Heart of Midlothian

1.30 xG created 1.32 xGA

D 1.09 created, 0.45 conceded against Motherwell
W 0.59 created, 0.30 conceded against Falkirk FC
L 0.96 created, 2.82 conceded against Celtic
L 1.34 created, 2.66 conceded against Aberdeen
W 2.09 created, 0.54 conceded against Dundee United
W 1.71 created, 1.16 conceded against St. Johnstone

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Hibernian: 1 won · 0 drawn · 3 lost

Pre-match model & market record

6 opportunities flagged1 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Hibernian against Heart of Midlothian before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+18.2%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.33	+15.2%	Lost
Draw	3.50	+13.6%	Lost
Hibernian not to score	3.75	+7.0%	Lost
Hibernian at most 1 goal	1.57	+5.7%	Won
Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal	1.57	+1.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hibernian	31.8%	37.0%	−5.2 pp	3.14
Draw	32.5%	27.0%	+5.5 pp	3.08
Heart of Midlothian	35.7%	36.0%	−0.2 pp	2.80

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Hibernian to score	71.5%	75.0%	−3.5 pp	1.40
Hibernian not to score	28.5%	25.0%	+3.5 pp	3.50
Heart of Midlothian to score	73.8%	73.1%	+0.7 pp	1.35
Heart of Midlothian not to score	26.2%	26.9%	−0.7 pp	3.82
Both teams to score	54.7%	55.7%	−1.1 pp	1.83
Both teams not to score	45.3%	44.3%	+1.1 pp	2.21
Hibernian 2+ goals	32.7%	41.1%	−8.4 pp	3.06
Hibernian at most 1 goal	67.3%	58.9%	+8.4 pp	1.49
Heart of Midlothian 2+ goals	35.6%	41.1%	−5.5 pp	2.81
Heart of Midlothian at most 1 goal	64.4%	58.9%	+5.5 pp	1.55
Over 1.5 goals	73.4%	78.0%	−4.6 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.6%	22.0%	+4.6 pp	3.76
Over 2.5 goals	43.7%	54.9%	−11.2 pp	2.29
Under 2.5 goals	56.3%	45.1%	+11.2 pp	1.78

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Hibernian sample: 20 matches
Heart of Midlothian sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.