Saturday, 05/09/2026 at 16:00
Full timeRangers 1:0 Motherwell
Rangers were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was Rangers's attack: 3.93 xG against 1.65 projected (+2.28). Motherwell produced 0.51 xG against 1.11 projected (−0.60).
Goals
- 12' Ryan Don Naderi Rangers · 0.99 xG chance 1–0
The model against the result
- Rangers
- 49% What happened
- Draw
- 29%
- Motherwell
- 23%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Rangers produced 2.28 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 27
- 8
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 22
- 7
- xG per shot
- 0.15
- 0.07
- Open play xG
- 2.92
- 0.48
- Set-piece xG
- 0.28
- 0.05
- Penalties
- 1
- 0
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 3.15 for Rangers and 0.51 for Motherwell.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
35 shots · 4.55 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- Rangers
- Motherwell
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.84 xG created 1.41 xGA
1.57 xG created 1.16 xGA
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 opportunities flagged3 won6 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Motherwell to win | 6.25 | +42.1% | Lost |
| Rangers not to score | 8.00 | +33.6% | Lost |
| Rangers at most 1 goal | 2.63 | +29.1% | Won |
| Draw | 4.50 | +28.8% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.63 | +21.5% | Won |
| Motherwell 2+ goals | 3.75 | +15.5% | Lost |
| Motherwell to score | 1.57 | +10.3% | Lost |
| Under 1.5 goals | 5.50 | +7.7% | Won |
| Both teams to score | 1.67 | +0.2% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers | 48.6% | 63.9% | −15.2 pp | 2.06 |
| Draw | 28.6% | 21.0% | +7.6 pp | 3.49 |
| Motherwell | 22.7% | 15.1% | +7.6 pp | 4.40 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rangers to score | 83.3% | 88.1% | −4.8 pp | 1.20 |
| Rangers not to score | 16.7% | 11.9% | +4.8 pp | 5.99 |
| Motherwell to score | 70.2% | 58.9% | +11.3 pp | 1.42 |
| Motherwell not to score | 29.8% | 41.1% | −11.3 pp | 3.36 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 55.7% | +4.4 pp | 1.66 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.9% | 44.3% | −4.4 pp | 2.51 |
| Rangers 2+ goals | 50.8% | 64.5% | −13.7 pp | 1.97 |
| Rangers at most 1 goal | 49.2% | 35.5% | +13.7 pp | 2.03 |
| Motherwell 2+ goals | 30.8% | 25.0% | +5.8 pp | 3.25 |
| Motherwell at most 1 goal | 69.2% | 75.0% | −5.8 pp | 1.45 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | 82.8% | −2.4 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.6% | 17.2% | +2.4 pp | 5.11 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.7% | 63.6% | −9.9 pp | 1.86 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.3% | 36.4% | +9.9 pp | 2.16 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Rangers sample
- 20 matches
- Motherwell sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 59 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.