Roma 1:1 Milan: xG & match report · Serie A

Sunday, 25/01/2026 at 20:45

Full time

Match report · Serie A

Roma Home 2.75 xG · 15 shots

Milan Away 0.44 xG · 5 shots

11 Roma had the better chances, but it finished level

Goals

62' Koni De Winter Milan · 0.31 xG chance 0–1
74' Lorenzo Pellegrini (pen.) Roma · 0.82 xG chance 1–1

The shots behind it

Roma Milan

Shots: 15; 5
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 11; 4
xG per shot: 0.19; 0.08
Open play xG: 1.31; 0.10
Set-piece xG: 0.70; 0.31
Penalties: 1; 0

Roma's shots add up to 2.83 xG and Milan's to 0.41; the published figures are 2.75 and 0.44.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 3.24 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Roma
Milan
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Roma

1.55 xG created 1.14 xGA

L 1.44 created, 2.55 conceded against Juventus
W 1.37 created, 0.71 conceded against Genoa
L 0.78 created, 1.88 conceded against Atalanta
W 1.33 created, 0.55 conceded against Lecce
W 2.54 created, 0.74 conceded against Sassuolo
W 1.84 created, 0.41 conceded against Torino

Milan

1.90 xG created 1.01 xGA

W 2.43 created, 0.39 conceded against Hellas Verona
W 0.70 created, 0.38 conceded against Cagliari
D 2.45 created, 1.32 conceded against Genoa
D 1.93 created, 1.90 conceded against Fiorentina
W 1.28 created, 1.87 conceded against Como
W 2.60 created, 0.17 conceded against Lecce

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Roma: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Milan 1:0 Roma 02/11/2025 xG 3.32 – 1.95

Model details

Show

The model never priced this match before kick-off, so there is no projection to read the result against.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.