Sassuolo – Atalanta prediction, 4 April 2027 · Serie A

Sunday, 04/04/2027

Match preview · Serie A

Sassuolo 10th in Serie A Home 1.55 projected goals

Atalanta 11th in Serie A Away 1.27 projected goals

Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available

What the model expects

expected goals

1.55 1.27

Sassuolo Atalanta

Sassuolo: 42%
Draw: 29%
Atalanta: 28%

The odds each result is fair at by the model's chance of it, with no margin in it
	Sassuolo	Draw	Atalanta
Fair odds	2.36	3.41	3.52

Total goals: 2.82
Over 2.5 goals: 55%
Both teams to score: 63%

Data coverage · full

Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Model vs market

Bookmaker prices appear once the league confirms this match's date and kickoff time. Until then the model's preview above is all there is to compare.

The model's case

Why the model leans Sassuolo

42% Sassuolo to win

Attack: 6th vs 12th; Sassuolo attack v Atalanta defence
Defence: 13th vs 9th; Sassuolo defence v Atalanta attack
Recent xG form: +0.30 vs -0.79; xGD per match, last 6
Projected goals: 1.55 – 1.27; Sassuolo v Atalanta

How the model arrived here →

Team comparison

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.

Overview: Sassuolo and Atalanta compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sassuolo	Atalanta
xG / match	(better) 1.73 · 5th	0.81 · 19th
xGA / match	(better) 1.33 · joint 7th	1.87 · 17th
xGD / match	(better) +0.41 · 5th	-1.06 · 19th
xPts / match	(better) 1.63 · 7th	0.67 · 19th
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.30	-0.79

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Attack: Sassuolo and Atalanta compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sassuolo	Atalanta
xG / match	(better) 1.73 · 5th	0.81 · 19th
npxG / match	(better) 1.55	0.70
Shots / match	(better) 17.2 · 5th	11.8 · joint 15th
npxG / shot	(better) 0.09 · 11th	0.06 · 20th

Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition.

Defence: Sassuolo and Atalanta compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sassuolo	Atalanta
xGA / match	(better) 1.33 · joint 7th	1.87 · 17th
Shots faced / match	(better) 15.8 · joint 12th	19.2 · 18th
npxGA / shot	(better) 0.07 · 2nd	0.09 · 13th

The last 6 matches, per match.

Form: Sassuolo and Atalanta compared, each figure with where it places in the competition.
Reading	Sassuolo	Atalanta
Last 6 xG / match	(better) 1.60	0.91
Last 6 xGA / match	(better) 1.29	1.70
Last 6 xGD / match	(better) +0.30	-0.79

Ratings fitted over each club's last 20 matches, recent ones weighted more and adjusted for the opponent.

Sassuolo attack → Atalanta defence

Evenly matched

Sassuolo attack: 1.10 · 6th
Atalanta defence: 1.03 · 12th

Atalanta attack → Sassuolo defence

Evenly matched

Atalanta attack: 1.03 · 9th
Sassuolo defence: 1.05 · 13th

The season aggregate places Atalanta 17th of 20; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 12th of 20. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Atalanta 19th of 20; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them higher, at 9th of 20. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

The season aggregate places Sassuolo tied 7th of 20; the fitted rating, which adjusts for who each opponent was, places them lower, at 13th of 20. The aggregate counts every opponent alike.

One is the competition's average. An attack above it creates more than an average side does; a defence below it concedes less. Both are fitted over recent matches and adjusted for who the opponent was.

The scorelines behind the model's numbers

No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 34% of the model's distribution.

Sassuolo clean sheet: 25%
Sassuolo 2+ goals: 48%
Under 2.5 goals: 45%
Both teams to score: no: 37%

Most likely scorelines

1:1: 14.6%
2:1: 10.7%
1:2: 8.5%

Value calculator

Check your bookmaker's price

Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.

How value is calculated

Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.

Nothing you type is remembered.

Open the calculator

Match result

Sassuolo to win

42.3% 2.36 —

Draw

29.3% 3.41 —

Atalanta to win

28.4% 3.52 —

Goals

Over 1.5 goals

81.4% 1.23 —

Under 1.5 goals

18.6% 5.39 —

Over 2.5 goals

55.2% 1.81 —

Under 2.5 goals

44.8% 2.23 —

Both teams to score

62.7% 1.60 —

Both teams not to score

37.3% 2.68 —

Team goals — Sassuolo

Sassuolo to score

81.5% 1.23 —

Sassuolo not to score

18.5% 5.41 —

Sassuolo 2+ goals

47.5% 2.10 —

Sassuolo at most 1 goal

52.5% 1.91 —

Team goals — Atalanta

Atalanta to score

74.8% 1.34 —

Atalanta not to score

25.2% 3.97 —

Atalanta 2+ goals

36.9% 2.71 —

Atalanta at most 1 goal

63.1% 1.58 —

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Sassuolo sample: 20 matches
Atalanta sample: 20 matches
Home xG sample · Sassuolo: 2 matches
Away xG sample · Atalanta: 2 matches
Computed: Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Sassuolo

1.60 xG created 1.29 xGA

L 0.91 created, 1.12 conceded against Parma
L 2.70 created, 0.88 conceded against Atalanta
W 1.85 created, 1.26 conceded against Torino
D 1.62 created, 1.88 conceded against Bologna
W 1.02 created, 1.10 conceded against Juventus
L 1.47 created, 1.51 conceded against Monza

Atalanta

0.91 xG created 1.70 xGA

D 1.38 created, 0.85 conceded against Fiorentina
W 0.88 created, 2.70 conceded against Sassuolo
W 0.15 created, 1.05 conceded against Bologna
L 0.70 created, 2.97 conceded against Roma
L 1.74 created, 1.32 conceded against Cagliari
L 0.60 created, 1.31 conceded against Juventus

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

2 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost