Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 18:00
7d 12h to kick-offSassuolo – Milan
Model updated 4 October, 03:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- Sassuolo
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- Milan
- 30%
| Sassuolo | Draw | Milan | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 2.58 | 3.21 | 3.34 |
- Total goals
- 2.55
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 8 outcomes.
-
Sassuolo
- Model
- 38.8%
- Market, margin removed
- 22.4%
- Probability gap
- +16.5 pp
- Edge
- +63.1%
- Fair odds
- 2.58
- Market odds
- 4.20 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 2.70
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
-
Draw
- Model
- 31.2%
- Market, margin removed
- 25.4%
- Probability gap
- +5.8 pp
- Edge
- +15.4%
- Fair odds
- 3.21
- Market odds
- 3.70 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.37
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
-
Milan
- Model
- 30.0%
- Market, margin removed
- 52.2%
- Probability gap
- −22.2 pp
- Edge
- −46.0%
- Fair odds
- 3.34
- Market odds
- 1.80 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 3.50
- Bookmaker margin
- 6.4%
Outcomes with value
Sassuolo to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
Milan not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Sassuolo 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Milan at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Sassuolo to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
Sassuolo to win
Model 38.8% vs. bookmaker 22.4%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.19%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans Sassuolo
39% Sassuolo to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 7th
- Sassuolo attack v Milan defence
- Defence
- 13th vs 13th
- Sassuolo defence v Milan attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.30 vs +0.16
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.36 – 1.19
- Sassuolo v Milan
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Sassuolo | Milan |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.73 · 5th | 1.58 · 7th |
| xGA / match | 1.33 · joint 7th | (better) 1.18 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.41 · 5th | +0.40 · 6th |
| xPts / match | 1.63 · 7th | (better) 1.63 · 6th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.30 | +0.16 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- Sassuolo clean sheet
- 28%
- Sassuolo 2+ goals
- 41%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 16.0%
- 2:1
- 10.1%
- 1:2
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Sassuolo sample
- 20 matches
- Milan sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Sassuolo
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Milan
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 03:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.