Saturday, 10/10/2026 at 18:30
6d 17h to kick-offAEK Athens – OFI Crete
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Best odds updated 10 October, 12:00
What the model expects
- AEK Athens
- 64%
- Draw
- 25%
- OFI Crete
- 12%
| AEK Athens | Draw | OFI Crete | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.57 | 4.05 | 8.65 |
- Total goals
- 2.63
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
The model sees an edge in 9 outcomes.
-
AEK Athens
- Model
- 63.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 77.6%
- Probability gap
- −13.9 pp
- Edge
- −24.7%
- Fair odds
- 1.57
- Market odds
- 1.18 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 1.65
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
-
Draw
- Model
- 24.7%
- Market, margin removed
- 15.3%
- Probability gap
- +9.4 pp
- Edge
- +48.2%
- Fair odds
- 4.05
- Market odds
- 6.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 4.25
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
-
OFI Crete
- Model
- 11.6%
- Market, margin removed
- 7.1%
- Probability gap
- +4.5 pp
- Edge
- +50.3%
- Fair odds
- 8.65
- Market odds
- 13.00 Bet365
- Price at which a 5% edge begins
- 9.08
- Bookmaker margin
- 9.0%
Outcomes with value
OFI Crete to win
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
AEK Athens at most 1 goal
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
AEK Athens not to score
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
OFI Crete to score
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
OFI Crete 2+ goals
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Draw
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Under 2.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
Under 1.5 goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Best opportunity
OFI Crete to win
Model 11.6% vs. bookmaker 7.1%, margin removed.
Match result
Measured model skill on this market: +7.20%.
No measured model skill on this market (-1.04%).
Goals
No measured model skill on this market (-0.89%).
No measured model skill on this market (-0.01%).
Both teams to score
No measured model skill on this market (-0.43%).
Goals by team
Measured model skill on this market: +3.62%.
Measured model skill on this market: +3.77%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.56%.
Measured model skill on this market: +2.61%.
Skill is what a backtest measured each market at, over 7 competitions to 17/08/2026. Across every market at once it is +2.50%. Markets measured at nothing are ranked last and never recommended. How that is measured →
Why the model leans AEK Athens
64% AEK Athens to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 9th
- AEK Athens attack v OFI Crete defence
- Defence
- 2nd vs 11th
- AEK Athens defence v OFI Crete attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.92 vs -0.04
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.87 – 0.76
- AEK Athens v OFI Crete
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | AEK Athens | OFI Crete |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.02 · 2nd | 1.04 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 0.95 · 4th | 1.18 · 5th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.07 · 3rd | -0.14 · 6th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.96 · 3rd | 1.22 · 8th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.92 | -0.04 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- AEK Athens clean sheet
- 44%
- AEK Athens 2+ goals
- 58%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:0
- 12.9%
- 1:1
- 12.9%
- 2:1
- 11.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
The prices above are one bookmaker's. Type your own to check it against the model.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- AEK Athens sample
- 20 matches
- OFI Crete sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · AEK Athens
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · OFI Crete
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
- Odds updated
- 1 minute ago
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.