Asteras Aktor 1:1 AEK Athens: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 18:00

Full time

Match report · Super League Greece

Asteras Aktor Home 1.46 xG · 13 shots

AEK Athens Away 2.17 xG · 22 shots

11 AEK Athens had the better chances, but it finished level

AEK Athens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 47%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was AEK Athens's attack: 2.17 xG against 1.34 projected (+0.83). Asteras Aktor produced 1.46 xG against 0.85 projected (+0.61).

Goals

21' Dimitris Laskaris (o.g.) AEK Athens · 0.10 xG chance 0–1
31' Julián Bartolo Asteras Aktor · 0.32 xG chance 1–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Asteras Aktor: 21%
Draw: 32% What happened
AEK Athens: 47%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Asteras Aktor 0.85 1.46 +0.61

AEK Athens 1.34 2.17 +0.83

AEK Athens produced 0.83 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Asteras Aktor AEK Athens

Shots: 13; 22
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 10; 18
xG per shot: 0.11; 0.10
Open play xG: 1.09; 1.42
Set-piece xG: 0.40; 0.84
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.46 for Asteras Aktor and 2.27 for AEK Athens.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 3.75 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Asteras Aktor
AEK Athens
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Asteras Aktor

1.33 xG created 1.08 xGA

W 1.42 created, 0.70 conceded against MGS Panserraikos
D 1.69 created, 0.44 conceded against AE Kifisia
W 1.86 created, 2.23 conceded against Panetolikos
L 1.19 created, 0.50 conceded against Panetolikos
L 0.83 created, 1.70 conceded against Olympiacos FC
L 0.99 created, 0.92 conceded against Iraklis 1908

AEK Athens

1.66 xG created 0.72 xGA

W 2.16 created, 0.45 conceded against Panathinaikos
D 1.02 created, 1.35 conceded against PAOK
D 0.78 created, 0.62 conceded against Olympiacos FC
W 2.06 created, 0.38 conceded against Iraklis 1908
D 0.42 created, 1.11 conceded against AE Kifisia
W 3.53 created, 0.40 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Asteras Aktor: 0 won · 0 drawn · 2 lost

Pre-match model & market record

9 opportunities flagged5 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Asteras Aktor against AEK Athens before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Asteras Aktor to win	9.00	+88.1%	Lost
AEK Athens not to score	6.50	+52.6%	Lost
Draw	4.50	+45.9%	Won
AEK Athens at most 1 goal	2.25	+35.9%	Won
Asteras Aktor 2+ goals	6.00	+23.1%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	1.95	+21.2%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	3.75	+18.0%	Lost
Asteras Aktor to score	1.83	+10.2%	Won
Both teams to score	2.10	+0.6%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Asteras Aktor	20.9%	10.5%	+10.4 pp	4.79
Draw	32.4%	21.0%	+11.4 pp	3.09
AEK Athens	46.7%	68.5%	−21.8 pp	2.14

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Asteras Aktor to score	60.1%	50.0%	+10.1 pp	1.66
Asteras Aktor not to score	39.9%	50.0%	−10.1 pp	2.51
AEK Athens to score	76.5%	85.4%	−8.9 pp	1.31
AEK Athens not to score	23.5%	14.6%	+8.9 pp	4.26
Both teams to score	47.9%	44.3%	+3.7 pp	2.09
Both teams not to score	52.1%	55.7%	−3.7 pp	1.92
Asteras Aktor 2+ goals	20.5%	15.8%	+4.7 pp	4.88
Asteras Aktor at most 1 goal	79.5%	84.2%	−4.7 pp	1.26
AEK Athens 2+ goals	39.6%	58.9%	−19.3 pp	2.52
AEK Athens at most 1 goal	60.4%	41.1%	+19.3 pp	1.66
Over 1.5 goals	68.5%	75.0%	−6.5 pp	1.46
Under 1.5 goals	31.5%	25.0%	+6.5 pp	3.18
Over 2.5 goals	37.9%	51.3%	−13.5 pp	2.64
Under 2.5 goals	62.1%	48.7%	+13.5 pp	1.61

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Asteras Aktor sample: 20 matches
AEK Athens sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.