Sunday, 20/09/2026 at 18:00
Full timeOFI Crete 2:2 Asteras Aktor
OFI Crete were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was Asteras Aktor's attack: 0.74 xG against 1.05 projected (−0.31). OFI Crete produced 0.91 xG against 1.20 projected (−0.29).
Goals
- 18' Giannis Apostolakis OFI Crete · 0.02 xG chance 1–0
- 24' Federico Macheda Asteras Aktor · 0.30 xG chance 1–1
- 50' Kalvin Ketu Asteras Aktor · 0.21 xG chance 1–2
- 90' Nikolaos Athanasiou OFI Crete · 0.04 xG chance 2–2
The model against the result
- OFI Crete
- 37%
- Draw
- 33% What happened
- Asteras Aktor
- 30%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Asteras Aktor produced 0.31 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 17
- 7
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 8
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.05
- 0.10
- Open play xG
- 0.60
- 0.69
- Set-piece xG
- 0.27
- 0.02
- Penalties
- —
- —
Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total
The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.88 for OFI Crete and 0.74 for Asteras Aktor.
Shot map
Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.
All shots
24 shots · 1.58 xG
Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.
- OFI Crete
- Asteras Aktor
- Filled = goal
- Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)
Recent form
1.13 xG created 1.48 xGA
- L 0.72 created, 2.38 conceded against APO Levadiakos
- W 1.79 created, 1.34 conceded against NPS Volos
- W 1.40 created, 0.91 conceded against NPS Volos
- L 1.34 created, 1.75 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
- W 0.67 created, 1.10 conceded against AE Kifisia
- W 0.87 created, 1.39 conceded against Olympiacos FC
1.34 xG created 1.33 xGA
- D 1.69 created, 0.44 conceded against AE Kifisia
- W 1.86 created, 2.23 conceded against Panetolikos
- L 1.19 created, 0.50 conceded against Panetolikos
- L 0.83 created, 1.70 conceded against Olympiacos FC
- L 0.99 created, 0.92 conceded against Iraklis 1908
- D 1.46 created, 2.17 conceded against AEK Athens
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.20 | +7.1% | Won |
| Asteras Aktor to win | 3.40 | +0.4% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.95 | +0.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OFI Crete | 37.0% | 42.8% | −5.8 pp | 2.70 |
| Draw | 33.5% | 29.4% | +4.0 pp | 2.99 |
| Asteras Aktor | 29.5% | 27.7% | +1.8 pp | 3.39 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 51.4% | 48.0% | +3.4 pp | 1.94 |
| Both teams not to score | 48.6% | 52.0% | −3.4 pp | 2.06 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | 66.3% | +3.9 pp | 1.43 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 33.7% | −3.9 pp | 3.35 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 41.8% | −2.2 pp | 2.53 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 60.4% | 58.2% | +2.2 pp | 1.66 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- OFI Crete sample
- 20 matches
- Asteras Aktor sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 day before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 day before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.