xgEdge

Expected goals

PAOK expected goals (xG) 2026/2027

Super League Greece · after 5 matches · updated 1 Oct

PAOK's attacking and defensive expected goals in Super League Greece 2026/2027, compared with the results they produced and with the rest of the competition.

PAOK xG and xGA per match

Every match ↓
Attack
1.85 xG per match
#3/14
Attack (xG per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xG per match
#1 Panathinaikos 2.13
#2 AEK Athens 2.02
#3 PAOK 1.85
#4 Olympiacos FC 1.81
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 1.52
#6 AE Kifisia 1.33
#7 PS Kalamata 1.26
#8 Asteras Aktor 1.04
#9 OFI Crete 1.04
#10 NPS Volos 0.93
#11 Atromitos Athens 0.91
#12 Panetolikos 0.89
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.62
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.57
League avg
1.27
Total
9.25 5 matches
Defence
1.20 xGA per match
#6/14
Defence (xGA per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGA per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.56
#2 AE Kifisia 0.70
#3 Panathinaikos 0.81
#4 AEK Athens 0.95
#5 OFI Crete 1.18
#6 PAOK 1.20
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.24
#8 APO Levadiakos 1.41
#9 Iraklis 1908 1.45
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.53
#11 NPS Volos 1.53
#12 PS Kalamata 1.57
#13 Panetolikos 1.59
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 1.81
League avg
1.27
Total
5.98 5 matches
xG difference
+0.65 xGD per match
#4/14
xG difference (xGD per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xGD per match
#1 Panathinaikos +1.31
#2 Olympiacos FC +1.25
#3 AEK Athens +1.07
#4 PAOK +0.65
#5 AE Kifisia +0.63
#6 OFI Crete -0.14
#7 Asteras Aktor -0.20
#8 Aris Thessaloniki -0.28
#9 PS Kalamata -0.31
#10 NPS Volos -0.60
#11 Atromitos Athens -0.62
#12 Panetolikos -0.70
#13 APO Levadiakos -0.79
#14 Iraklis 1908 -0.88
League avg
0.00
Total
+3.27 5 matches
Expected points Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
1.88 xPts per match
#5/14
Expected points (xPts per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club xPts per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 2.25
#2 Panathinaikos 2.17
#3 AEK Athens 1.96
#4 AE Kifisia 1.92
#5 PAOK 1.88
#6 Aris Thessaloniki 1.39
#7 Asteras Aktor 1.22
#8 OFI Crete 1.22
#9 PS Kalamata 1.20
#10 Atromitos Athens 1.02
#11 Panetolikos 1.02
#12 NPS Volos 0.94
#13 APO Levadiakos 0.71
#14 Iraklis 1908 0.65
League avg
1.38
Total
9.41 vs 12 actual pts

Early-season figures: after 5 matches, per-match rates can move quickly.

What the xG says

PAOK's underlying numbers are among the best in Super League Greece. They rank #4 for xG difference at +0.65 per match, built on elite chance quality rather than about average shot volume. Their 12 goals are 2.75 above 9.25 xG, while 12 points are 2.59 above 9.41 xPts. After only 5 matches, those gaps should still be read cautiously.

Actual vs expected

Measure Actual Expected Difference Reading
Goals vs xG Includes 1.60 xG from penalties
12 9.25 +2.75 scored 2.75 more than xG within normal variance
Goals conceded vs xGA
5 5.98 -0.98 conceded 0.98 fewer than xGA within normal variance
Points vs xPts Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works →
12 9.41 +2.59 2.59 points above xPts outside normal variance

Select a row to chart it across the season.

Goals minus xG, match by match

PAOK are 2.75 goals above their xG after 5 matches.

Goals
12
xG
9.25
Gap
+2.75
Sun 23/08 Sun 30/08 Sun 06/09 Sun 13/09 Sun 20/09 -1 0 +1 +2 +3 +1.85 +2.24 +2.22 +1.83 +2.75 +1.85 +0.39 -0.02 -0.39 +0.92 Running gap goals − xG Each match goals − xG
PAOK: Goals vs xG, the gap after every match with xG
Date Opponent Goals xG Match gap Running gap
Sun 23/08 APO Levadiakos 4 2.15 +1.85 +1.85
Sun 30/08 Atromitos Athens 2 1.61 +0.39 +2.24
Sun 06/09 Panathinaikos 1 1.02 -0.02 +2.22
Sun 13/09 Aris Thessaloniki 2 2.39 -0.39 +1.83
Sun 20/09 Panetolikos 3 2.08 +0.92 +2.75

Goals vs xG ranking → Expected points ranking →

PAOK xG trend

Current form +0.54 npxGD per match

All 5 matches with xG so far — the window fills at 6.

Out-created the opponent in 4 of 5 matches. The only negative was against Panathinaikos on Sun 06/09 (-0.91).

npxG · last 5
1.53
npxGA · last 5
0.99
-1 0 +1 +2 +0.97 Sun 23/08 +0.35 Sun 30/08 -0.91 Sun 06/09 +0.34 Sun 13/09 +1.96 Sun 20/09 +0.54 season avg
PAOK: non-penalty xG, xGA and their difference in each match, with the season's average so far
Date Opponent npxG npxGA npxGD Avg so far
Sun 23/08 APO Levadiakos 1.44 0.47 +0.97 +0.97
Sun 30/08 Atromitos Athens 1.48 1.13 +0.35 +0.66
Sun 06/09 Panathinaikos 1.02 1.93 -0.91 +0.14
Sun 13/09 Aris Thessaloniki 1.63 1.29 +0.34 +0.19
Sun 20/09 Panetolikos 2.08 0.12 +1.96 +0.54

Each bar is one match's non-penalty xG minus the non-penalty xG against; the line is that difference averaged over the season up to each match, and it finishes on the dashed season average — 1.53 npxG and 0.99 npxGA per match. Current form is the same difference over the last 6 matches with xG.

Form ranking →

Strength of schedule

Season so far
number 10 hardest of 14 in Super League Greece
−0.08 xG vs league average
Over 5 league matches
Opponents behind the figures

Season so far

−0.08 xG vs league average · over 5 matches · number 10 hardest of 14

  1. Panetolikos Away −0.52
  2. Aris Thessaloniki Home +0.07
  3. Panathinaikos Away +0.39
  4. Atromitos Athens Away −0.10
  5. APO Levadiakos Home −0.21

League schedule strength → How this is calculated →

PAOK shots and chance quality

Average volume, high quality. PAOK take 12.2 shots a match (league 12.5) at 0.13 npxG a shot (league 0.09), #5 in Super League Greece for volume and #2 for quality. 72% of their shots come from inside the box (league 64%), and set pieces produce 13% of their npxG (league 23%).

Attack

Shot volume
12.2 shots per match
#5/14
Shot volume (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 Olympiacos FC 19.2
#2 Panathinaikos 18.0
#3 AEK Athens 17.2
#4 Aris Thessaloniki 16.2
#5 PAOK 12.2
=6 Asteras Aktor 11.6
=6 Atromitos Athens 11.6
=6 PS Kalamata 11.6
#9 AE Kifisia 11.5
#10 NPS Volos 11.2
#11 OFI Crete 10.8
#12 APO Levadiakos 9.2
#13 Panetolikos 8.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 7.8
League avg
12.5
Total
61 shots from 5 matches
Chance quality
0.13 npxG per shot
#2/14
Chance quality (npxG per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxG per shot
#1 Panetolikos 0.13
#2 PAOK 0.13
#3 PS Kalamata 0.11
#4 AEK Athens 0.11
#5 AE Kifisia 0.10
#6 Panathinaikos 0.09
#7 OFI Crete 0.08
#8 NPS Volos 0.08
#9 Olympiacos FC 0.08
#10 Asteras Aktor 0.08
#11 Aris Thessaloniki 0.08
#12 Atromitos Athens 0.07
#13 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#14 APO Levadiakos 0.07
League avg
0.09
Total
7.65 npxG from 61 shots

Defence

Shots allowed
13.2 shots per match
#9/14
Shots allowed (shots per match) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club shots per match
#1 AE Kifisia 8.3
#2 Panathinaikos 8.7
#3 Olympiacos FC 9.0
#4 AEK Athens 10.6
#5 Aris Thessaloniki 11.4
#6 NPS Volos 12.4
#7 Asteras Aktor 12.6
#8 APO Levadiakos 13.0
#9 PAOK 13.2
#10 Atromitos Athens 13.6
#11 OFI Crete 14.0
#12 Panetolikos 14.5
#13 PS Kalamata 14.8
#14 Iraklis 1908 17.6
League avg
12.5
Total
66 shots allowed from 5 matches
Chance quality allowed
0.07 npxGA per shot
#4/14
Chance quality allowed (npxGA per shot) across Super League Greece, best first
Rank Club npxGA per shot
#1 Olympiacos FC 0.06
#2 OFI Crete 0.07
#3 Iraklis 1908 0.07
#4 PAOK 0.07
#5 AE Kifisia 0.09
#6 Panetolikos 0.09
#7 NPS Volos 0.09
#8 Atromitos Athens 0.09
#9 AEK Athens 0.09
#10 PS Kalamata 0.10
#11 Asteras Aktor 0.10
#12 APO Levadiakos 0.10
#13 Panathinaikos 0.13
#14 Aris Thessaloniki 0.15
League avg
0.09
Total
4.94 npxGA from 66 shots

Shot profile

Shot location

72% inside the box

League avg 64%

From 44 of 61 shots over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Shots allowed, location

58% allowed inside the box

League avg 64%

From 39 of 67 shots allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG comes from

87% open play · 13% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 1.0 of 7.7 npxG over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

Where the npxG allowed comes from

77% open play · 23% set pieces

League avg 23% set pieces

From 1.2 of 5.0 npxG allowed over 5 matches

Early-season figure: after 5 matches, the share can move quickly.

How the shot figures are made →

PAOK home and away xG

PAOK per-match figures at home and away
Measure Home only 2 matches with xG Away
Matches 2 3
xG / match 2.27 1.57
xGA / match 0.91 1.39
xGD / match +1.37 +0.18
xPts / match Model — Model output — computed from each match's xG, not a result. How xPts works → 2.34 1.58

Every figure divides by that half's matches with xG. A half with fewer than 3 matches with xG is muted.

Every PAOK match by xG

Window
Season Last 10 Last 5
Venue
All Home Away

This season

Matches
5
xG / match
1.85
xGA / match
1.20
xGD / match
+0.65
Points
12 of 15
  1. Sun 20/09 Panetolikos A Best underlying xG 2.08 xGA 0.12 xGD +1.96
  2. Sun 13/09 Aris Thessaloniki H xG 2.39 P xGA 1.24 xGD +1.15
  3. Sun 06/09 Panathinaikos A Weakest underlying xG 1.02 xGA 2.72 P xGD -1.70
  4. Sun 30/08 Atromitos Athens A xG 1.61 xGA 1.33 xGD +0.28
  5. Sun 23/08 APO Levadiakos H xG 2.15 P xGA 0.57 xGD +1.58

Newest first. The dot is xG and the ring is xGA, on one scale from 0 to 3.00. Best and weakest underlying mark the highest and lowest xGD once 5 matches have xG. Against the chances marks a win with xGD of −1.00 or lower, or a loss with +1.00 or higher. P marks a side with at least 0.50 xG from penalties.

Every result, all competitions →

PAOK in Super League Greece

Attack

Defence

Overall

About the data

xG data
Provided by TheStatsAPI, and stored as published.
Derived metrics
xGD, per-match rates, rankings and rolling averages are calculated from the match data.
Model metrics
xPts is produced by our probability model.

Learn how our xG analytics work →

How the model works →

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