Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 18:00
27d 23h to kick-offPAOK – Asteras Aktor
Model updated 4 October, 18:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- PAOK
- 52%
- Draw
- 30%
- Asteras Aktor
- 18%
| PAOK | Draw | Asteras Aktor | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.91 | 3.36 | 5.61 |
- Total goals
- 2.38
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%
- Both teams to score
- 50%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans PAOK
52% PAOK to win
- Attack
- 5th vs 7th
- PAOK attack v Asteras Aktor defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 10th
- PAOK defence v Asteras Aktor attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.72 vs -0.23
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.53 – 0.85
- PAOK v Asteras Aktor
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | PAOK | Asteras Aktor |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.85 · 3rd | 1.04 · 8th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.20 · 6th | 1.24 · 7th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.65 · 4th | -0.20 · 7th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.88 · 5th | 1.22 · 7th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.72 | -0.23 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 38% of the model's distribution.
- PAOK clean sheet
- 40%
- PAOK 2+ goals
- 47%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 57%
- Both teams to score: no
- 50%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 15.3%
- 1:0
- 11.9%
- 2:0
- 11.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
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- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- PAOK sample
- 20 matches
- Asteras Aktor sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · PAOK
- 2 matches
- Away xG sample · Asteras Aktor
- 2 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 18:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.