PAOK 1:3 PS Kalamata: xG & match report · Super League Greece

Monday, 12/10/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · Super League Greece

PAOK Home 1.25 xG · 19 shots

PS Kalamata Away 2.36 xG · 12 shots

13 The scoreline reflected the chances

PAOK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. PS Kalamata won 3–1. The biggest difference was PS Kalamata's attack: 2.36 xG against 0.89 projected (+1.47). PAOK produced 1.25 xG against 1.67 projected (−0.42).

Goals

28' Kenneth Vargas (pen.) PS Kalamata · 0.82 xG chance 0–1
44' Cherif Ndiaye PAOK · 0.21 xG chance 1–1
57' Kenneth Vargas PS Kalamata · 0.03 xG chance 1–2
66' Dawid Kurminowski PS Kalamata · 0.99 xG chance 1–3

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

PAOK: 55%
Draw: 28%
PS Kalamata: 17% What happened

Data coverage One of these teams has only 5 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

PAOK 1.67 1.25 -0.42

PS Kalamata 0.89 2.36 +1.47

PS Kalamata produced 1.47 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

PAOK PS Kalamata

Shots: 19; 12
On target: 5; 6
Inside the box: 12; 8
xG per shot: 0.07; 0.20
Open play xG: 0.86; 1.18
Set-piece xG: 0.56; 0.41
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 1.42 for PAOK and 1.54 for PS Kalamata.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

31 shots · 3.82 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

PAOK
PS Kalamata
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

PAOK

1.98 xG created 1.27 xGA

D 2.63 created, 1.61 conceded against Panathinaikos
W 2.15 created, 0.57 conceded against APO Levadiakos
W 1.61 created, 1.33 conceded against Atromitos Athens
L 1.02 created, 2.72 conceded against Panathinaikos
W 2.39 created, 1.24 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
W 2.08 created, 0.12 conceded against Panetolikos

PS Kalamata

1.26 xG created 1.57 xGA

L 1.41 created, 2.69 conceded against Aris Thessaloniki
L 1.02 created, 2.46 conceded against Panetolikos
D 0.46 created, 0.24 conceded against Atromitos Athens
W 2.25 created, 0.76 conceded against NPS Volos
L 1.16 created, 1.72 conceded against Panathinaikos

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

9 qualified edges flagged5 won4 lost

Won
Lost
Lost
Won
Won
Lost
Won
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on PAOK against PS Kalamata before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
PS Kalamata to win	11.00	+86.4%	Won
Draw	6.50	+82.6%	Lost
PAOK not to score	11.00	+80.2%	Lost
PAOK at most 1 goal	3.40	+65.2%	Won
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	6.00	+31.7%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.40	+24.2%	Lost
PS Kalamata to score	1.91	+18.0%	Won
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+17.1%	Lost
Both teams to score	2.05	+9.4%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PAOK	55.0%	76.6%	−21.6 pp	1.82
Draw	28.1%	14.7%	+13.4 pp	3.56
PS Kalamata	16.9%	8.7%	+8.2 pp	5.90

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
PAOK to score	83.6%	91.3%	−7.7 pp	1.20
PAOK not to score	16.4%	8.7%	+7.7 pp	6.10
PS Kalamata to score	61.8%	48.5%	+13.3 pp	1.62
PS Kalamata not to score	38.2%	51.5%	−13.3 pp	2.62
Both teams to score	53.4%	45.3%	+8.0 pp	1.87
Both teams not to score	46.6%	54.7%	−8.0 pp	2.14
PAOK 2+ goals	51.4%	72.3%	−20.9 pp	1.95
PAOK at most 1 goal	48.6%	27.7%	+20.9 pp	2.06
PS Kalamata 2+ goals	21.9%	15.8%	+6.2 pp	4.56
PS Kalamata at most 1 goal	78.1%	84.2%	−6.2 pp	1.28
Over 1.5 goals	76.6%	81.1%	−4.5 pp	1.31
Under 1.5 goals	23.4%	18.9%	+4.5 pp	4.27
Over 2.5 goals	48.2%	61.0%	−12.8 pp	2.07
Under 2.5 goals	51.8%	39.0%	+12.8 pp	1.93

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
PAOK sample: 20 matches
PS Kalamata sample: 5 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 4 hours before kick-off

Warnings

PS Kalamata has only 5 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.