Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 5:1 Eyüpspor: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 11:30

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Home 4.95 xG · 20 shots

Eyüpspor Away 0.98 xG · 8 shots

51 The scoreline reflected the chances

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 63%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was Amed Sportif Faaliyetler's attack: 4.95 xG against 1.73 projected (+3.22). Eyüpspor produced 0.98 xG against 0.68 projected (+0.30).

Goals

13' Ermal Krasniqi Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.09 xG chance 1–0
35' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.05 xG chance 2–0
42' Samuel Ballet Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.97 xG chance 3–0
51' Samuel Ballet Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.96 xG chance 4–0
73' Ahmed Abdullahi Eyüpspor · 0.55 xG chance 4–1
83' Samuel Ballet (pen.) Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.82 xG chance 5–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler: 63% What happened
Draw: 26%
Eyüpspor: 11%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 1.73 4.95 +3.22

Eyüpspor 0.68 0.98 +0.30

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler produced 3.22 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Eyüpspor

Shots: 20; 8
On target: 7; 2
Inside the box: 15; 4
xG per shot: 0.25; 0.12
Open play xG: 3.93; 0.95
Set-piece xG: 0.25; 0.04
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 4.17 for Amed Sportif Faaliyetler and 0.98 for Eyüpspor.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

28 shots · 5.98 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
Eyüpspor
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

1.97 xG created 0.85 xGA

D 1.11 created, 1.04 conceded against Kasımpaşa
W 4.25 created, 0.39 conceded against Başakşehir FK
W 1.54 created, 2.04 conceded against Beşiktaş
D 2.11 created, 0.50 conceded against Gençlerbirliği
W 1.28 created, 0.22 conceded against Konyaspor
W 1.54 created, 0.91 conceded against Samsunspor

Eyüpspor

0.86 xG created 2.47 xGA

L 0.73 created, 2.58 conceded against Çorum FK
L 1.42 created, 2.05 conceded against Çaykur Rizespor
L 0.72 created, 5.14 conceded against Fenerbahçe
L 1.39 created, 3.21 conceded against Göztepe
L 0.44 created, 1.23 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
L 0.43 created, 0.59 conceded against Kasımpaşa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 qualified edges flagged0 won5 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Amed Sportif Faaliyetler against Eyüpspor before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler not to score	10.00	+53.8%	Lost
Draw	5.50	+43.3%	Lost
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at most 1 goal	3.00	+39.6%	Lost
Under 2.5 goals	2.30	+28.3%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	4.50	+20.0%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler	62.5%	72.4%	−9.9 pp	1.60
Draw	26.1%	16.7%	+9.3 pp	3.84
Eyüpspor	11.4%	10.8%	+0.6 pp	8.76

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to score	84.6%	90.4%	−5.8 pp	1.18
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler not to score	15.4%	9.6%	+5.8 pp	6.50
Eyüpspor to score	51.9%	48.5%	+3.4 pp	1.93
Eyüpspor not to score	48.1%	51.5%	−3.4 pp	2.08
Both teams to score	45.5%	44.3%	+1.2 pp	2.20
Both teams not to score	54.5%	55.7%	−1.2 pp	1.83
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 2+ goals	53.5%	68.7%	−15.3 pp	1.87
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at most 1 goal	46.5%	31.3%	+15.3 pp	2.15
Eyüpspor 2+ goals	14.0%	15.8%	−1.8 pp	7.15
Eyüpspor at most 1 goal	86.0%	84.2%	+1.8 pp	1.16
Over 1.5 goals	73.3%	79.2%	−5.9 pp	1.36
Under 1.5 goals	26.7%	20.8%	+5.9 pp	3.75
Over 2.5 goals	44.2%	59.0%	−14.8 pp	2.26
Under 2.5 goals	55.8%	41.0%	+14.8 pp	1.79

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler sample: 9 matches
Eyüpspor sample: 20 matches
Computed: 1 hour before kick-off
Prices taken: 2 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.