Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 5:0 Başakşehir FK: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Sunday, 13/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · Süper Lig

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Home 4.25 xG · 19 shots

Başakşehir FK Away 0.39 xG · 7 shots

50 The scoreline reflected the chances

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 42%. They won 5–0. The biggest difference was Amed Sportif Faaliyetler's attack: 4.25 xG against 1.46 projected (+2.79). Başakşehir FK produced 0.39 xG against 1.17 projected (−0.78).

Goals

45' Emin Bayram (o.g.) Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.18 xG chance 1–0
52' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.11 xG chance 2–0
56' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.89 xG chance 3–0
75' Gift Orban Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.94 xG chance 4–0
84' Mbaye Diagne Amed Sportif Faaliyetler · 0.70 xG chance 5–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler: 42% What happened
Draw: 30%
Başakşehir FK: 28%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 4 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 1.46 4.25 +2.79

Başakşehir FK 1.17 0.39 -0.78

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler produced 2.79 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler Başakşehir FK

Shots: 19; 7
On target: 6; 1
Inside the box: 14; 3
xG per shot: 0.20; 0.05
Open play xG: 2.99; 0.29
Set-piece xG: 0.81; 0.03
Penalties: —; —

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler's shots add up to 3.80 xG and Başakşehir FK's to 0.32; the published figures are 4.25 and 0.39.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

26 shots · 4.12 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler
Başakşehir FK
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

1.48 xG created 0.88 xGA

W 1.50 created, 0.23 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
L 0.60 created, 1.31 conceded against Kocaelispor
W 2.69 created, 0.93 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 1.11 created, 1.04 conceded against Kasımpaşa

Başakşehir FK

2.03 xG created 1.24 xGA

W 3.31 created, 0.32 conceded against Samsunspor
W 2.21 created, 0.63 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.96 created, 0.43 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.95 created, 2.27 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 0.76 created, 1.69 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 1.99 created, 2.12 conceded against Galatasaray

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

5 opportunities flagged3 won2 lost

Won
Won
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Amed Sportif Faaliyetler against Başakşehir FK before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Başakşehir FK not to score	3.75	+5.9%	Won
Başakşehir FK at most 1 goal	1.57	+5.1%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.10	+4.5%	Lost
Draw	3.40	+3.1%	Lost
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to win	2.40	+1.0%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler	42.1%	38.2%	+3.9 pp	2.38
Draw	30.3%	26.9%	+3.4 pp	3.30
Başakşehir FK	27.6%	34.9%	−7.3 pp	3.63

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler to score	79.4%	75.0%	+4.4 pp	1.26
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler not to score	20.6%	25.0%	−4.4 pp	4.86
Başakşehir FK to score	71.8%	75.0%	−3.2 pp	1.39
Başakşehir FK not to score	28.2%	25.0%	+3.2 pp	3.54
Both teams to score	58.8%	57.7%	+1.1 pp	1.70
Both teams not to score	41.2%	42.3%	−1.1 pp	2.43
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler 2+ goals	44.2%	42.3%	+1.9 pp	2.26
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler at most 1 goal	55.8%	57.7%	−1.9 pp	1.79
Başakşehir FK 2+ goals	33.1%	41.1%	−8.0 pp	3.02
Başakşehir FK at most 1 goal	66.9%	58.9%	+8.0 pp	1.49
Over 1.5 goals	78.1%	78.3%	−0.3 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	21.9%	21.7%	+0.3 pp	4.56
Over 2.5 goals	50.2%	55.3%	−5.0 pp	1.99
Under 2.5 goals	49.8%	44.7%	+5.0 pp	2.01

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Amed Sportif Faaliyetler sample: 4 matches
Başakşehir FK sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 9 hours before kick-off

Warnings

Amed Sportif Faaliyetler has only 4 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.