Başakşehir FK 4:0 Gençlerbirliği: xG & match report · Süper Lig

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Süper Lig

Başakşehir FK Home 2.74 xG · 18 shots

Gençlerbirliği Away 0.52 xG · 7 shots

40 The scoreline reflected the chances

Başakşehir FK were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. They won 4–0. The biggest difference was Başakşehir FK's attack: 2.74 xG against 1.78 projected (+0.96). Gençlerbirliği produced 0.52 xG against 1.06 projected (−0.54).

Goals

9' Andreas Skov Olsen Başakşehir FK · 0.24 xG chance 1–0
33' Eldor Shomurodov Başakşehir FK · 0.61 xG chance 2–0
53' Davie Selke (pen.) Başakşehir FK · 0.82 xG chance 3–0
65' Eldor Shomurodov Başakşehir FK · 0.28 xG chance 4–0

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Başakşehir FK: 53% What happened
Draw: 27%
Gençlerbirliği: 20%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Başakşehir FK 1.78 2.74 +0.96

Gençlerbirliği 1.06 0.52 -0.54

Başakşehir FK produced 0.96 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Başakşehir FK Gençlerbirliği

Shots: 18; 7
On target: 11; 0
Inside the box: 12; 3
xG per shot: 0.16; 0.07
Open play xG: 1.88; 0.30
Set-piece xG: 0.09; 0.16
Penalties: 1; 0

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.00 for Başakşehir FK and 0.46 for Gençlerbirliği.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

25 shots · 3.25 xG

Hover, focus or tap a shot to read it.

Başakşehir FK
Gençlerbirliği
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Başakşehir FK

1.54 xG created 1.90 xGA

W 2.21 created, 0.63 conceded against Gaziantep FK
W 1.96 created, 0.43 conceded against Kocaelispor
L 1.95 created, 2.27 conceded against Trabzonspor
D 0.76 created, 1.69 conceded against Kasımpaşa
L 1.99 created, 2.12 conceded against Galatasaray
L 0.39 created, 4.25 conceded against Amed Sportif Faaliyetler

Gençlerbirliği

1.18 xG created 1.80 xGA

W 1.58 created, 0.57 conceded against Trabzonspor
W 1.19 created, 2.90 conceded against Fenerbahçe
W 1.56 created, 1.92 conceded against Göztepe
D 0.75 created, 0.86 conceded against Erzurumspor FK
L 0.86 created, 3.21 conceded against Trabzonspor
L 1.16 created, 1.32 conceded against Kasımpaşa

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Başakşehir FK: 1 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Başakşehir FK against Gençlerbirliği before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	4.00	+8.3%	Lost
Başakşehir FK at most 1 goal	2.38	+6.6%	Lost
Başakşehir FK not to score	7.00	+1.5%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.67	+0.1%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Başakşehir FK	53.4%	58.1%	−4.8 pp	1.87
Draw	27.1%	23.3%	+3.8 pp	3.69
Gençlerbirliği	19.5%	18.6%	+0.9 pp	5.12

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Başakşehir FK to score	85.5%	86.4%	−0.9 pp	1.17
Başakşehir FK not to score	14.5%	13.6%	+0.9 pp	6.89
Gençlerbirliği to score	68.4%	64.5%	+3.9 pp	1.46
Gençlerbirliği not to score	31.6%	35.5%	−3.9 pp	3.16
Both teams to score	60.0%	55.7%	+4.3 pp	1.67
Both teams not to score	40.0%	44.3%	−4.3 pp	2.50
Başakşehir FK 2+ goals	55.1%	60.8%	−5.7 pp	1.81
Başakşehir FK at most 1 goal	44.9%	39.2%	+5.7 pp	2.23
Gençlerbirliği 2+ goals	28.8%	27.7%	+1.2 pp	3.47
Gençlerbirliği at most 1 goal	71.2%	72.3%	−1.2 pp	1.40
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	79.2%	+2.4 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	20.8%	−2.4 pp	5.44
Over 2.5 goals	55.7%	58.2%	−2.5 pp	1.79
Under 2.5 goals	44.3%	41.8%	+2.5 pp	2.26

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Başakşehir FK sample: 20 matches
Gençlerbirliği sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.