AC Horsens 0:0 Randers FC: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Friday, 16/10/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

AC Horsens Home 0.50 xG · 10 shots

Randers FC Away 1.88 xG · 10 shots

00 Randers FC had the better chances, but it finished level

AC Horsens were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was AC Horsens's attack: 0.50 xG against 1.49 projected (−0.99). Randers FC produced 1.88 xG against 1.09 projected (+0.79).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

AC Horsens: 45%
Draw: 30% What happened
Randers FC: 25%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

AC Horsens 1.49 0.50 -0.99

Randers FC 1.09 1.88 +0.79

AC Horsens produced 0.99 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

AC Horsens Randers FC

Shots: 10; 10
On target: 5; 3
Inside the box: 4; 9
xG per shot: 0.05; 0.19
Open play xG: 0.21; 0.37
Set-piece xG: 0.30; 0.71
Penalties: 0; 1

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 0.50 for AC Horsens and 1.09 for Randers FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

20 shots · 2.41 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

AC Horsens
Randers FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

AC Horsens

1.53 xG created 1.61 xGA

W 0.76 created, 2.87 conceded against Lyngby
L 0.83 created, 1.92 conceded against Viborg FF
W 2.42 created, 0.62 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.63 created, 1.05 conceded against FC København
D 1.19 created, 1.01 conceded against AGF
D 3.37 created, 2.18 conceded against Silkeborg IF

Randers FC

1.20 xG created 1.51 xGA

L 1.03 created, 1.28 conceded against FC Midtjylland
W 1.10 created, 1.97 conceded against AGF
W 0.85 created, 1.19 conceded against Brøndby IF
L 1.68 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.57 created, 1.36 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.94 created, 2.12 conceded against Viborg FF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged4 won3 lost

Won
Lost
Won
Won
Won
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on AC Horsens against Randers FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Randers FC not to score	4.33	+32.3%	Won
AC Horsens to win	2.80	+25.6%	Lost
Randers FC at most 1 goal	1.73	+20.9%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.15	+9.6%	Won
Draw	3.50	+6.1%	Won
AC Horsens 2+ goals	2.25	+2.1%	Lost
AC Horsens to score	1.25	+0.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Horsens	44.9%	33.1%	+11.7 pp	2.23
Draw	30.3%	26.5%	+3.8 pp	3.30
Randers FC	24.8%	40.3%	−15.5 pp	4.03

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
AC Horsens to score	80.2%	75.0%	+5.2 pp	1.25
AC Horsens not to score	19.8%	25.0%	−5.2 pp	5.05
Randers FC to score	69.5%	78.3%	−8.9 pp	1.44
Randers FC not to score	30.5%	21.7%	+8.9 pp	3.27
Both teams to score	57.5%	58.9%	−1.4 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	41.1%	+1.4 pp	2.35
AC Horsens 2+ goals	45.4%	41.1%	+4.2 pp	2.20
AC Horsens at most 1 goal	54.6%	58.9%	−4.2 pp	1.83
Randers FC 2+ goals	30.0%	46.3%	−16.4 pp	3.34
Randers FC at most 1 goal	70.0%	53.7%	+16.4 pp	1.43
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	78.3%	−1.0 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	21.7%	+1.0 pp	4.40
Over 2.5 goals	49.0%	56.3%	−7.3 pp	2.04
Under 2.5 goals	51.0%	43.7%	+7.3 pp	1.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
AC Horsens sample: 10 matches
Randers FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 59 minutes before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.