Lyngby 2:1 Randers FC: xG & match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Friday, 30/10/2026 at 19:00

Full time

Match report · Superliga (Denmark)

Lyngby Home 2.72 xG · 15 shots

Randers FC Away 2.23 xG · 20 shots

21 The scoreline reflected the chances

Lyngby were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 49%. They won 2–1. The biggest difference was Randers FC's attack: 2.23 xG against 1.05 projected (+1.18). Lyngby produced 2.72 xG against 1.60 projected (+1.12).

Goals

23' Frederik Gytkjær Lyngby · 0.92 xG chance 1–0
45' Mohamed Sankoh Randers FC · 0.97 xG chance 1–1
69' Markus Anderson Lyngby · 0.41 xG chance 2–1

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

Lyngby: 49% What happened
Draw: 29%
Randers FC: 22%

Data coverage Both teams have at least 10 matches in the model window, but at least one has fewer than the full 20.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

Lyngby 1.60 2.72 +1.12

Randers FC 1.05 2.23 +1.18

Randers FC produced 1.18 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

Lyngby Randers FC

Shots: 15; 20
On target: 8; 4
Inside the box: 10; 15
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.11
Open play xG: 1.61; 1.21
Set-piece xG: 1.14; 1.05
Penalties: —; —

Shot-level xG may differ from the published match total

The provider publishes the match total separately from its shot-by-shot values. Those values are rounded to two decimals and, leaving out penalties and own goals, add up to its non-penalty xG: 2.72 for Lyngby and 2.23 for Randers FC.

Shot map

Both teams shown attacking the same goal for comparison.

All shots

35 shots · 5.02 xG

Hover or tap a shot, or step through them with the arrows.

Lyngby
Randers FC
Filled = goal
Dot area = xG (the smallest chances drawn at a minimum size)

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

Lyngby

1.22 xG created 1.92 xGA

W 1.55 created, 1.52 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.87 created, 1.80 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.30 created, 0.95 conceded against Silkeborg IF
L 0.75 created, 2.34 conceded against Brøndby IF
D 2.10 created, 2.47 conceded against FC Nordsjælland
L 0.72 created, 2.43 conceded against FC Midtjylland

Randers FC

1.37 xG created 1.58 xGA

W 0.85 created, 1.19 conceded against Brøndby IF
L 1.68 created, 1.14 conceded against Odense Boldklub
L 1.57 created, 1.36 conceded against Sønderjyske Fodbold
L 0.94 created, 2.12 conceded against Viborg FF
D 1.88 created, 0.50 conceded against AC Horsens
L 1.31 created, 3.19 conceded against Brøndby IF

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

Lyngby: 0 won · 0 drawn · 1 lost

Randers FC 2:0 Lyngby 09/08/2026 xG 1.51 – 1.85

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged2 won5 lost

Lost
Won
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on Lyngby against Randers FC before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Under 2.5 goals	2.35	+15.9%	Lost
Randers FC at most 1 goal	1.57	+12.8%	Won
Randers FC not to score	3.50	+12.6%	Lost
Under 1.5 goals	5.00	+8.3%	Lost
Draw	3.60	+4.8%	Lost
Both teams not to score	2.38	+0.8%	Lost
Lyngby to win	2.05	+0.5%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lyngby	49.0%	45.2%	+3.8 pp	2.04
Draw	29.1%	25.8%	+3.3 pp	3.44
Randers FC	21.9%	29.0%	−7.1 pp	4.57

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Lyngby to score	82.3%	81.1%	+1.3 pp	1.21
Lyngby not to score	17.7%	18.9%	−1.3 pp	5.66
Randers FC to score	67.8%	73.1%	−5.3 pp	1.47
Randers FC not to score	32.2%	26.9%	+5.3 pp	3.11
Both teams to score	57.5%	60.8%	−3.2 pp	1.74
Both teams not to score	42.5%	39.2%	+3.2 pp	2.36
Lyngby 2+ goals	49.2%	51.5%	−2.3 pp	2.03
Lyngby at most 1 goal	50.8%	48.5%	+2.3 pp	1.97
Randers FC 2+ goals	28.2%	41.1%	−12.9 pp	3.55
Randers FC at most 1 goal	71.8%	58.9%	+12.9 pp	1.39
Over 1.5 goals	78.3%	81.1%	−2.7 pp	1.28
Under 1.5 goals	21.7%	18.9%	+2.7 pp	4.62
Over 2.5 goals	50.7%	59.9%	−9.2 pp	1.97
Under 2.5 goals	49.3%	40.1%	+9.2 pp	2.03

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
Lyngby sample: 12 matches
Randers FC sample: 20 matches
Computed: 29 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 3 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.