Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
25d 23h to kick-offFC Corvinul Hunedoara – FC Argeș Pitești
Model updated 5 October, 15:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- 50%
- Draw
- 29%
- FC Argeș Pitești
- 21%
| FC Corvinul Hunedoara | Draw | FC Argeș Pitești | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.99 | 3.50 | 4.71 |
- Total goals
- 2.70
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams to score
- 58%
One of these teams has only 9 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Corvinul Hunedoara
50% FC Corvinul Hunedoara to win
- Attack
- 7th vs 4th
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara attack v FC Argeș Pitești defence
- Defence
- 10th vs 15th
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara defence v FC Argeș Pitești attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.37 vs 0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 1.05
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara v FC Argeș Pitești
The fit has seen one of these two sides in only 9 matches, so read all of this as a rough guide.
How the model arrived here →Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Corvinul Hunedoara | FC Argeș Pitești |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.61 · 10th | 1.18 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 1.49 · 6th | (better) 1.21 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.11 · 7th | -0.03 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.39 · 9th | 1.37 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.37 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 35% of the model's distribution.
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara clean sheet
- 32%
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 48%
- Both teams to score: no
- 42%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.6%
- 2:1
- 11.3%
- 2:0
- 9.2%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
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Model details
· 1 warning
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara sample
- 9 matches
- FC Argeș Pitești sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Argeș Pitești
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Monday, 05/10/2026 at 15:30
Warnings
- FC Corvinul Hunedoara has only 9 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.