FC Voluntari 1:0 FC Argeș Pitești: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

Monday, 07/09/2026 at 16:30

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Match report · SuperLiga (Romania)

FC Voluntari Home

FC Argeș Pitești Away

FC Voluntari were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 37%. They won 1–0.

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FC Voluntari: 37% What happened
Draw: 29%
FC Argeș Pitești: 33%

Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FC Voluntari

1.62 xG created 2.74 xGA

D 2.88 created, 2.57 conceded against FC Botoșani
L 1.16 created, 2.88 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
W 0.79 created, 1.51 conceded against UTA Arad
L 2.04 created, 2.23 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
L 0.87 created, 4.58 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 1.96 created, 2.65 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați

FC Argeș Pitești

1.02 xG created 1.10 xGA

W 0.50 created, 0.68 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
W 2.20 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
W 0.92 created, 3.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
D 0.37 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
L 1.16 created, 0.86 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
L 0.95 created, 0.65 conceded against Sepsi OSK

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Pre-match model & market record

4 opportunities flagged1 won3 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FC Voluntari against FC Argeș Pitești before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Over 2.5 goals	2.50	+38.9%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.50	+22.4%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.91	+20.8%	Lost
FC Voluntari to win	3.00	+11.2%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FC Voluntari	37.1%	29.9%	+7.2 pp	2.70
Draw	29.5%	32.0%	−2.5 pp	3.39
FC Argeș Pitești	33.5%	38.1%	−4.7 pp	2.99

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	63.3%	48.5%	+14.7 pp	1.58
Both teams not to score	36.7%	51.5%	−14.7 pp	2.72
Over 1.5 goals	81.6%	62.5%	+19.1 pp	1.23
Under 1.5 goals	18.4%	37.5%	−19.1 pp	5.44
Over 2.5 goals	55.6%	37.5%	+18.1 pp	1.80
Under 2.5 goals	44.4%	62.5%	−18.1 pp	2.25

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

· 1 warning

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Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FC Voluntari sample: 7 matches
FC Argeș Pitești sample: 20 matches
Computed: 6 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 6 hours before kick-off

Warnings

FC Voluntari has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.