Monday, 19/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Universitatea Cluj 2:2 FC Argeș Pitești
FC Universitatea Cluj were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 53%. It finished 2–2. The biggest difference was FC Argeș Pitești's attack: 1.51 xG against 0.94 projected (+0.57).
The model against the result
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 53%
- Draw
- 29% What happened
- FC Argeș Pitești
- 18%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Argeș Pitești produced 0.57 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 14
- 19
- On target
- 6
- 9
- Inside the box
- 8
- 11
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.08
Recent form
2.08 xG created 1.61 xGA
- W 2.30 created, 2.47 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.94 created, 1.51 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- L 3.33 created, 2.02 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- L 0.66 created, 2.05 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 1.78 created, 0.20 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- W 2.49 created, 1.43 conceded against FC Voluntari
1.19 xG created 1.19 xGA
- W 2.20 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- W 0.92 created, 3.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- D 0.37 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- L 1.16 created, 0.86 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- L 0.95 created, 0.65 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.51 created, 1.19 conceded against FC Botoșani
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
2 qualified edges flagged2 won0 lost
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 1.91 | +5.0% | Won |
| FC Argeș Pitești to score | 1.62 | +3.4% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj | 53.0% | 56.3% | −3.2 pp | 1.89 |
| Draw | 28.5% | 25.7% | +2.8 pp | 3.51 |
| FC Argeș Pitești | 18.4% | 18.0% | +0.4 pp | 5.42 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Universitatea Cluj to score | 83.3% | 81.1% | +2.2 pp | 1.20 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj not to score | 16.7% | 18.9% | −2.2 pp | 5.97 |
| FC Argeș Pitești to score | 64.1% | 57.7% | +6.4 pp | 1.56 |
| FC Argeș Pitești not to score | 35.9% | 42.3% | −6.4 pp | 2.78 |
| Both teams to score | 55.0% | 48.5% | +6.5 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.0% | 51.5% | −6.5 pp | 2.22 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals | 50.8% | 51.5% | −0.7 pp | 1.97 |
| FC Universitatea Cluj at most 1 goal | 49.2% | 48.5% | +0.7 pp | 2.03 |
| FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals | 24.0% | 23.4% | +0.6 pp | 4.17 |
| FC Argeș Pitești at most 1 goal | 76.0% | 76.6% | −0.6 pp | 1.31 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | 73.1% | +4.1 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.7% | 26.9% | −4.1 pp | 4.40 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.1% | 48.7% | +0.4 pp | 2.04 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.9% | 51.3% | −0.4 pp | 1.97 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FC Argeș Pitești sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.