Monday, 12/10/2026 at 17:00
Full timeFC Argeș Pitești 0:1 CFR 1907 Cluj
FC Argeș Pitești were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 39%. CFR 1907 Cluj won 1–0.
The model against the result
- FC Argeș Pitești
- 39%
- Draw
- 31%
- CFR 1907 Cluj
- 30% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Recent form
1.19 xG created 1.19 xGA
- W 2.20 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- W 0.92 created, 3.37 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- D 0.37 created, 1.05 conceded against FC Farul Constanța
- L 1.16 created, 0.86 conceded against SC Oțelul Galați
- L 0.95 created, 0.65 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.51 created, 1.19 conceded against FC Botoșani
2.19 xG created 1.84 xGA
- W 2.88 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Voluntari
- L 1.17 created, 3.84 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 1.54 created, 1.74 conceded against FCSB
- W 2.02 created, 0.96 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
- L 1.89 created, 2.41 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- W 3.62 created, 0.92 conceded against FC Botoșani
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
8 qualified edges flagged1 won7 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals | 3.00 | +24.1% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 2.00 | +17.7% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 2.35 | +16.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.44 | +12.1% | Lost |
| FC Argeș Pitești to score | 1.40 | +8.9% | Lost |
| CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals | 3.00 | +5.1% | Lost |
| CFR 1907 Cluj to score | 1.40 | +2.7% | Won |
| FC Argeș Pitești to win | 2.60 | +0.6% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Argeș Pitești | 38.7% | 34.9% | +3.8 pp | 2.58 |
| Draw | 30.9% | 30.2% | +0.7 pp | 3.23 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj | 30.4% | 34.9% | −4.5 pp | 3.29 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Argeș Pitești to score | 77.8% | 66.3% | +11.5 pp | 1.29 |
| FC Argeș Pitești not to score | 22.2% | 33.7% | −11.5 pp | 4.49 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj to score | 73.3% | 66.3% | +7.1 pp | 1.36 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj not to score | 26.7% | 33.7% | −7.1 pp | 3.75 |
| Both teams to score | 58.8% | 46.3% | +12.5 pp | 1.70 |
| Both teams not to score | 41.2% | 53.7% | −12.5 pp | 2.43 |
| FC Argeș Pitești 2+ goals | 41.4% | 31.3% | +10.1 pp | 2.42 |
| FC Argeș Pitești at most 1 goal | 58.6% | 68.7% | −10.1 pp | 1.71 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj 2+ goals | 35.0% | 31.3% | +3.8 pp | 2.86 |
| CFR 1907 Cluj at most 1 goal | 65.0% | 68.7% | −3.8 pp | 1.54 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.7% | 64.5% | +13.1 pp | 1.29 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 22.3% | 35.5% | −13.1 pp | 4.47 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.5% | 40.1% | +9.4 pp | 2.02 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 59.9% | −9.4 pp | 1.98 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Argeș Pitești sample
- 20 matches
- CFR 1907 Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 4 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.