Saturday, 17/10/2026 at 15:00
13d 13h to kick-offFC Universitatea Cluj – FC Argeș Pitești
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FC Universitatea Cluj
- 53%
- Draw
- 29%
- FC Argeș Pitești
- 19%
| FC Universitatea Cluj | Draw | FC Argeș Pitești | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.90 | 3.51 | 5.29 |
- Total goals
- 2.62
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 56%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FC Universitatea Cluj
53% FC Universitatea Cluj to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 4th
- FC Universitatea Cluj attack v FC Argeș Pitești defence
- Defence
- 5th vs 15th
- FC Universitatea Cluj defence v FC Argeș Pitești attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.47 vs 0.00
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.65 – 0.96
- FC Universitatea Cluj v FC Argeș Pitești
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FC Universitatea Cluj | FC Argeș Pitești |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.98 · 6th | 1.18 · 15th |
| xGA / match | 1.70 · 8th | (better) 1.21 · 4th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.28 · 6th | -0.03 · 8th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.55 · 6th | 1.37 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.47 | +0.00 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 36% of the model's distribution.
- FC Universitatea Cluj clean sheet
- 35%
- FC Universitatea Cluj 2+ goals
- 51%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 44%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.7%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 10.1%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FC Universitatea Cluj sample
- 20 matches
- FC Argeș Pitești sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FC Universitatea Cluj
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Argeș Pitești
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.