Sunday, 11/10/2026 at 20:00
7d 17h to kick-offFCSB – SC Oțelul Galați
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FCSB
- 60%
- Draw
- 23%
- SC Oțelul Galați
- 17%
| FCSB | Draw | SC Oțelul Galați | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.68 | 4.31 | 5.81 |
- Total goals
- 3.34
- Over 2.5 goals
- 67%
- Both teams to score
- 66%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FCSB
60% FCSB to win
- Attack
- 3rd vs 11th
- FCSB attack v SC Oțelul Galați defence
- Defence
- 7th vs 13th
- FCSB defence v SC Oțelul Galați attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.25 vs -0.57
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.16 – 1.18
- FCSB v SC Oțelul Galați
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FCSB | SC Oțelul Galați |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.18 · 2nd | 1.33 · 13th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.70 · 9th | 1.78 · 11th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.48 · 5th | -0.45 · 12th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.59 · 5th | 1.09 · 13th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.25 | -0.57 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- FCSB clean sheet
- 28%
- FCSB 2+ goals
- 66%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 33%
- Both teams to score: no
- 34%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 11.2%
- 1:1
- 10.7%
- 3:1
- 8.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
Enter a bookmaker's price to compare it with the model's fair odds.
How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
Show
Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FCSB sample
- 20 matches
- SC Oțelul Galați sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FCSB
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · SC Oțelul Galați
- 3 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.