Sunday, 06/09/2026 at 19:30
Full timeSC Oțelul Galați 0:1 FC Rapid București
SC Oțelul Galați were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. FC Rapid București won 1–0. The biggest difference was FC Rapid București's attack: 3.19 xG against 1.37 projected (+1.82). SC Oțelul Galați produced 0.48 xG against 1.38 projected (−0.90).
The model against the result
- SC Oțelul Galați
- 35%
- Draw
- 30%
- FC Rapid București
- 35% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FC Rapid București produced 1.82 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 12
- 19
- On target
- 4
- 6
- Inside the box
- 3
- 14
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.17
Recent form
1.53 xG created 1.42 xGA
- W 3.24 created, 0.83 conceded against CFR 1907 Cluj
- D 0.37 created, 2.25 conceded against UTA Arad
- D 0.48 created, 1.65 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- D 1.60 created, 0.65 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
- W 0.86 created, 1.16 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 2.65 created, 1.96 conceded against FC Voluntari
1.53 xG created 1.23 xGA
- W 2.25 created, 0.14 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 1.45 created, 1.79 conceded against FC Botoșani
- D 1.05 created, 0.84 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.72 created, 1.42 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 1.31 created, 1.26 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
- D 1.39 created, 1.95 conceded against Universitatea Craiova
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
4 opportunities flagged0 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| SC Oțelul Galați to win | 3.20 | +12.8% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +6.9% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +4.3% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +3.3% | Lost |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Oțelul Galați | 35.3% | 27.8% | +7.5 pp | 2.84 |
| Draw | 30.1% | 27.8% | +2.3 pp | 3.33 |
| FC Rapid București | 34.7% | 44.4% | −9.8 pp | 2.88 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 61.9% | 53.7% | +8.2 pp | 1.62 |
| Both teams not to score | 38.1% | 46.3% | −8.2 pp | 2.62 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | 73.1% | +7.2 pp | 1.24 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 19.7% | 26.9% | −7.2 pp | 5.08 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.5% | 48.7% | +4.8 pp | 1.87 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 46.5% | 51.3% | −4.8 pp | 2.15 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- SC Oțelul Galați sample
- 20 matches
- FC Rapid București sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 5 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.