Saturday, 31/10/2026 at 15:00
25d 12h to kick-offUniversitatea Craiova – FC Botoșani
Model updated 6 October, 03:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- Universitatea Craiova
- 71%
- Draw
- 19%
- FC Botoșani
- 10%
| Universitatea Craiova | Draw | FC Botoșani | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.40 | 5.31 | 10.05 |
- Total goals
- 3.44
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%
- Both teams to score
- 61%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans Universitatea Craiova
71% Universitatea Craiova to win
- Attack
- 1st vs 14th
- Universitatea Craiova attack v FC Botoșani defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 9th
- Universitatea Craiova defence v FC Botoșani attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.28 vs -0.09
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.49 – 0.96
- Universitatea Craiova v FC Botoșani
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | Universitatea Craiova | FC Botoșani |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.45 · 1st | 1.99 · 5th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.11 · 1st | 2.10 · 14th |
| xGD / match | (better) +1.34 · 1st | -0.11 · 11th |
| xPts / match | (better) 2.03 · 2nd | 1.34 · 11th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.29 | -0.09 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 30% of the model's distribution.
- Universitatea Craiova clean sheet
- 35%
- Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals
- 73%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 31%
- Both teams to score: no
- 39%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 2:0
- 9.6%
- 3:1
- 9.3%
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- FC Botoșani sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · Universitatea Craiova
- 5 matches
- Away xG sample · FC Botoșani
- 6 matches
- Computed
- Tuesday, 06/10/2026 at 03:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.