Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 20:00
Full timeUniversitatea Craiova 2:0 FC Farul Constanța
Universitatea Craiova were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 72%. They won 2–0. The biggest difference was Universitatea Craiova's attack: 1.37 xG against 2.46 projected (−1.09).
The model against the result
- Universitatea Craiova
- 72% What happened
- Draw
- 19%
- FC Farul Constanța
- 10%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Universitatea Craiova produced 1.09 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 16
- 8
- On target
- 7
- 2
- Inside the box
- 9
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.09
- 0.10
Recent form
2.69 xG created 0.77 xGA
- W 4.58 created, 0.87 conceded against FC Voluntari
- D 1.95 created, 1.39 conceded against FC Rapid București
- W 2.05 created, 0.66 conceded against FC Universitatea Cluj
- W 1.07 created, 0.60 conceded against FC Corvinul Hunedoara
- W 3.14 created, 0.61 conceded against FCSB
- W 3.33 created, 0.47 conceded against FK Csíkszereda Miercurea Ciuc
1.48 xG created 1.76 xGA
- D 1.05 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Argeș Pitești
- D 0.72 created, 1.53 conceded against Sepsi OSK
- D 2.25 created, 2.32 conceded against FC Botoșani
- W 2.07 created, 1.98 conceded against UTA Arad
- L 1.42 created, 2.74 conceded against FC Dinamo București
- W 1.37 created, 1.64 conceded against FC Petrolul Ploieşti
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.67 | +13.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +10.1% | Lost |
| FC Farul Constanța to score | 1.73 | +9.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.20 | +6.0% | Won |
| Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals | 1.44 | +5.3% | Won |
| FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals | 4.50 | +5.1% | Lost |
| Universitatea Craiova to score | 1.08 | +0.8% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova | 71.5% | 66.3% | +5.2 pp | 1.40 |
| Draw | 18.8% | 21.0% | −2.2 pp | 5.31 |
| FC Farul Constanța | 9.6% | 12.6% | −3.0 pp | 10.39 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Universitatea Craiova to score | 93.1% | 88.1% | +5.0 pp | 1.07 |
| Universitatea Craiova not to score | 6.9% | 11.9% | −5.0 pp | 14.40 |
| FC Farul Constanța to score | 63.4% | 53.7% | +9.8 pp | 1.58 |
| FC Farul Constanța not to score | 36.6% | 46.3% | −9.8 pp | 2.73 |
| Both teams to score | 60.1% | 50.0% | +10.1 pp | 1.67 |
| Both teams not to score | 39.9% | 50.0% | −10.1 pp | 2.50 |
| Universitatea Craiova 2+ goals | 72.9% | 64.5% | +8.4 pp | 1.37 |
| Universitatea Craiova at most 1 goal | 27.1% | 35.5% | −8.4 pp | 3.69 |
| FC Farul Constanța 2+ goals | 23.4% | 20.8% | +2.6 pp | 4.28 |
| FC Farul Constanța at most 1 goal | 76.6% | 79.2% | −2.6 pp | 1.30 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | 78.3% | +10.0 pp | 1.13 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 11.6% | 21.7% | −10.0 pp | 8.58 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 67.9% | 56.3% | +11.6 pp | 1.47 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 32.1% | 43.7% | −11.6 pp | 3.12 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Universitatea Craiova sample
- 20 matches
- FC Farul Constanța sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.