Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 16:00
Full timeFK Crvena zvezda 5:1 FK Mladost Lučani
FK Crvena zvezda were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 83%. They won 5–1. The biggest difference was FK Crvena zvezda's attack: 5.16 xG against 2.99 projected (+2.17). FK Mladost Lučani produced 0.46 xG against 0.77 projected (−0.31).
The model against the result
- FK Crvena zvezda
- 83% What happened
- Draw
- 12%
- FK Mladost Lučani
- 5%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Crvena zvezda produced 2.17 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 36
- 4
- On target
- 12
- 1
- Inside the box
- 21
- 1
- xG per shot
- 0.14
- 0.12
Recent form
2.55 xG created 1.03 xGA
- W 2.53 created, 1.02 conceded against FK Čukarički
- W 3.51 created, 1.52 conceded against FK Zemun
- W 1.96 created, 1.16 conceded against FK Partizan
- W 1.22 created, 0.60 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- W 3.66 created, 0.69 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- W 2.42 created, 1.20 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
1.08 xG created 1.87 xGA
- W 1.03 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Napredak Kruševac
- D 1.20 created, 1.87 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- W 1.40 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Partizan
- W 1.11 created, 2.20 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.49 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- W 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
6 qualified edges flagged3 won3 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | 2.63 | +44.1% | Won |
| FK Mladost Lučani to score | 2.50 | +41.0% | Won |
| FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals | 8.00 | +36.3% | Lost |
| Draw | 9.50 | +18.7% | Lost |
| FK Mladost Lučani to win | 23.00 | +5.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.10 | +0.6% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena zvezda | 82.9% | 86.1% | −3.2 pp | 1.21 |
| Draw | 12.5% | 9.8% | +2.7 pp | 8.00 |
| FK Mladost Lučani | 4.6% | 4.1% | +0.5 pp | 21.91 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Crvena zvezda to score | 96.1% | 91.1% | +5.0 pp | 1.04 |
| FK Crvena zvezda not to score | 3.9% | 8.9% | −5.0 pp | 25.48 |
| FK Mladost Lučani to score | 56.4% | 37.5% | +18.9 pp | 1.77 |
| FK Mladost Lučani not to score | 43.6% | 62.5% | −18.9 pp | 2.29 |
| Both teams to score | 54.9% | 35.5% | +19.4 pp | 1.82 |
| Both teams not to score | 45.1% | 64.5% | −19.4 pp | 2.22 |
| FK Crvena zvezda 2+ goals | 82.3% | 79.4% | +2.9 pp | 1.22 |
| FK Crvena zvezda at most 1 goal | 17.7% | 20.6% | −2.9 pp | 5.64 |
| FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals | 17.0% | 11.7% | +5.3 pp | 5.87 |
| FK Mladost Lučani at most 1 goal | 83.0% | 88.3% | −5.3 pp | 1.21 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91.4% | 85.5% | +5.9 pp | 1.09 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 8.6% | 14.5% | −5.9 pp | 11.68 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 74.7% | 70.9% | +3.8 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 25.3% | 29.1% | −3.8 pp | 3.95 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Crvena zvezda sample
- 20 matches
- FK Mladost Lučani sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 29 minutes before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 3 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.