FK Mladost Lučani 0:0 OFK Beograd: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Monday, 12/10/2026 at 20:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Mladost Lučani Home 0.72 xG

OFK Beograd Away 1.39 xG

00 OFK Beograd had the better chances, but it finished level

OFK Beograd were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 43%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was FK Mladost Lučani's attack: 0.72 xG against 1.23 projected (−0.51).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Mladost Lučani: 28%
Draw: 30% What happened
OFK Beograd: 43%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Mladost Lučani 1.23 0.72 -0.51

OFK Beograd 1.54 1.39 -0.15

FK Mladost Lučani produced 0.51 xG less than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Mladost Lučani OFK Beograd

Shots: 8; 12
On target: 0; 2
Inside the box: 5; 4
xG per shot: 0.09; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Mladost Lučani

0.87 xG created 1.82 xGA

W 0.96 created, 1.58 conceded against FK Zemun
W 1.40 created, 2.22 conceded against FK Partizan
L 0.04 created, 0.61 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
W 1.11 created, 2.20 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 0.49 created, 2.49 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
W 1.22 created, 1.79 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac

OFK Beograd

1.26 xG created 2.22 xGA

L 0.57 created, 1.66 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 2.32 created, 0.21 conceded against FK Zemun
L 1.32 created, 2.71 conceded against FK Partizan
D 0.39 created, 3.87 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
L 1.02 created, 2.66 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 1.95 created, 2.18 conceded against FK Radnički 1923

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Mladost Lučani: 0 won · 2 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

7 qualified edges flagged0 won7 lost

Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost
Lost

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Mladost Lučani against OFK Beograd before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
OFK Beograd 2+ goals	2.50	+17.3%	Lost
Over 2.5 goals	2.10	+13.0%	Lost
Both teams to score	1.83	+12.8%	Lost
OFK Beograd to score	1.33	+8.2%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.33	+7.4%	Lost
OFK Beograd to win	2.45	+4.6%	Lost
FK Mladost Lučani to score	1.40	+3.2%	Lost

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Mladost Lučani	27.8%	33.7%	−5.9 pp	3.60
Draw	29.5%	28.5%	+1.0 pp	3.39
OFK Beograd	42.7%	37.8%	+4.9 pp	2.34

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Mladost Lučani to score	73.7%	66.3%	+7.4 pp	1.36
FK Mladost Lučani not to score	26.3%	33.7%	−7.4 pp	3.80
OFK Beograd to score	81.1%	70.9%	+10.2 pp	1.23
OFK Beograd not to score	18.9%	29.1%	−10.2 pp	5.30
Both teams to score	61.5%	50.0%	+11.5 pp	1.63
Both teams not to score	38.5%	50.0%	−11.5 pp	2.60
FK Mladost Lučani 2+ goals	35.5%	33.7%	+1.7 pp	2.82
FK Mladost Lučani at most 1 goal	64.5%	66.3%	−1.7 pp	1.55
OFK Beograd 2+ goals	46.9%	37.5%	+9.4 pp	2.13
OFK Beograd at most 1 goal	53.1%	62.5%	−9.4 pp	1.88
Over 1.5 goals	80.5%	70.9%	+9.6 pp	1.24
Under 1.5 goals	19.5%	29.1%	−9.6 pp	5.14
Over 2.5 goals	53.8%	44.7%	+9.1 pp	1.86
Under 2.5 goals	46.2%	55.3%	−9.1 pp	2.16

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Mladost Lučani sample: 20 matches
OFK Beograd sample: 20 matches
Computed: 9 minutes before kick-off
Prices taken: 1 hour before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.