Sunday, 01/11/2026 at 17:00
24d 19h to kick-offFK IMT Beograd – FK Čukarički
Model updated 7 October, 21:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK IMT Beograd
- 57%
- Draw
- 27%
- FK Čukarički
- 16%
| FK IMT Beograd | Draw | FK Čukarički | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.75 | 3.68 | 6.32 |
- Total goals
- 2.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score
- 53%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK IMT Beograd
57% FK IMT Beograd to win
- Attack
- 6th vs 11th
- FK IMT Beograd attack v FK Čukarički defence
- Defence
- 1st vs 9th
- FK IMT Beograd defence v FK Čukarički attack
- Recent xG form
- +0.90 vs -0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 1.73 – 0.87
- FK IMT Beograd v FK Čukarički
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK IMT Beograd | FK Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 1.85 · 7th | 1.50 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.13 · 2nd | 1.67 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.72 · 6th | -0.16 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.67 · 6th | 1.32 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +0.90 | -0.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 37% of the model's distribution.
- FK IMT Beograd clean sheet
- 39%
- FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals
- 53%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 50%
- Both teams to score: no
- 47%
Most likely scorelines
- 1:1
- 14.0%
- 2:1
- 11.5%
- 2:0
- 11.2%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- FK Čukarički sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK IMT Beograd
- 3 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Čukarički
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Wednesday, 07/10/2026 at 21:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.