FK Vojvodina 1:1 FK IMT Beograd: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 17:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

FK Vojvodina Home 1.43 xG

FK IMT Beograd Away 1.53 xG

11 The chances were evenly matched

FK Vojvodina were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 41%. It finished 1–1. The biggest difference was FK IMT Beograd's attack: 1.53 xG against 1.17 projected (+0.36).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

FK Vojvodina: 41%
Draw: 31% What happened
FK IMT Beograd: 29%

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

FK Vojvodina 1.41 1.43 +0.02

FK IMT Beograd 1.17 1.53 +0.36

FK IMT Beograd produced 0.36 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

FK Vojvodina FK IMT Beograd

Shots: 8; 14
On target: 2; 2
Inside the box: 6; 10
xG per shot: 0.18; 0.11

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

FK Vojvodina

3.19 xG created 1.58 xGA

W 1.21 created, 1.77 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
L 6.21 created, 2.85 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
W 3.41 created, 0.33 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
W 1.84 created, 1.74 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 4.89 created, 0.78 conceded against FK Zemun
W 1.55 created, 2.02 conceded against FK Partizan

FK IMT Beograd

1.90 xG created 1.08 xGA

W 1.39 created, 1.78 conceded against FK Čukarički
W 3.98 created, 0.00 conceded against FK Zemun
W 2.25 created, 0.71 conceded against FK Partizan
D 2.87 created, 0.54 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
L 0.30 created, 2.23 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
L 0.60 created, 1.22 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

FK Vojvodina: 0 won · 1 drawn · 1 lost

Pre-match model & market record

3 opportunities flagged2 won1 lost

Lost
Won
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on FK Vojvodina against FK IMT Beograd before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
FK IMT Beograd to win	4.33	+23.7%	Lost
Draw	4.00	+23.4%	Won
Under 2.5 goals	2.25	+14.7%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
FK Vojvodina	40.6%	55.0%	−14.4 pp	2.46
Draw	30.8%	23.4%	+7.5 pp	3.24
FK IMT Beograd	28.5%	21.6%	+7.0 pp	3.50

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	58.2%	55.7%	+2.5 pp	1.72
Both teams not to score	41.8%	44.3%	−2.5 pp	2.39
Over 1.5 goals	77.3%	78.3%	−1.0 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.7%	21.7%	+1.0 pp	4.41
Over 2.5 goals	49.0%	58.2%	−9.2 pp	2.04
Under 2.5 goals	51.0%	41.8%	+9.2 pp	1.96

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
FK Vojvodina sample: 20 matches
FK IMT Beograd sample: 20 matches
Computed: 8 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 8 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.