OFK Beograd 3:5 FK Radnički 1923: xG & match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

Saturday, 19/09/2026 at 19:00

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Match report · SuperLiga (Serbia)

OFK Beograd Home 1.95 xG

FK Radnički 1923 Away 2.18 xG

35 The chances were evenly matched

FK Radnički 1923 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 35%. They won 5–3. The biggest difference was FK Radnički 1923's attack: 2.18 xG against 1.32 projected (+0.86). OFK Beograd produced 1.95 xG against 1.29 projected (+0.66).

The model against the result

priced before kick-off

OFK Beograd: 34%
Draw: 31%
FK Radnički 1923: 35% What happened

Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.

Projected vs produced

Expected goals

OFK Beograd 1.29 1.95 +0.66

FK Radnički 1923 1.32 2.18 +0.86

FK Radnički 1923 produced 0.86 xG more than projected

Projected before kick-off Produced on the night

The shots behind it

OFK Beograd FK Radnički 1923

Shots: 14; 18
On target: 6; 7
Inside the box: 7; 7
xG per shot: 0.14; 0.12

Recent form

Last 6 · xG per match

OFK Beograd

1.18 xG created 2.07 xGA

L 0.29 created, 2.15 conceded against FK Vojvodina
D 1.02 created, 0.79 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
W 2.84 created, 2.45 conceded against FK Novi Pazar
L 0.57 created, 1.66 conceded against FK Čukarički
L 1.32 created, 2.71 conceded against FK Partizan
L 1.02 created, 2.66 conceded against FK Radnički Niš

FK Radnički 1923

2.22 xG created 1.14 xGA

W 4.05 created, 1.06 conceded against FK Zemun
W 0.74 created, 4.12 conceded against FK Partizan
W 2.23 created, 0.30 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
D 0.76 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
D 3.02 created, 0.22 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
W 2.49 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani

xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result

Head to head

OFK Beograd: 1 won · 1 drawn · 0 lost

Pre-match model & market record

2 opportunities flagged1 won1 lost

Lost
Won

View pre-match record

The outcomes the model flagged on OFK Beograd against FK Radnički 1923 before kick-off, in the order they ranked, with the price, the edge and what became of each.
Selection	Price	Edge	Result
Draw	3.50	+8.0%	Lost
Over 1.5 goals	1.29	+0.1%	Won

Pre-match model vs market

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
OFK Beograd	33.8%	32.6%	+1.3 pp	2.96
Draw	30.9%	26.7%	+4.1 pp	3.24
FK Radnički 1923	35.3%	40.7%	−5.4 pp	2.83

Other markets

Outcome	Model	Market	Difference	Fair odds
Both teams to score	59.1%	55.7%	+3.4 pp	1.69
Both teams not to score	40.9%	44.3%	−3.4 pp	2.45
Over 1.5 goals	77.8%	73.1%	+4.7 pp	1.29
Under 1.5 goals	22.2%	26.9%	−4.7 pp	4.51
Over 2.5 goals	49.8%	50.0%	−0.2 pp	2.01
Under 2.5 goals	50.2%	50.0%	+0.2 pp	1.99

Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.

Model details

Show

Fit window: the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
OFK Beograd sample: 20 matches
FK Radnički 1923 sample: 20 matches
Computed: 10 hours before kick-off
Prices taken: 10 hours before kick-off

Limitations

The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.