Sunday, 18/10/2026 at 14:00
Full timeFK Novi Pazar 1:2 FK IMT Beograd
FK IMT Beograd were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 36%. They won 2–1. Both teams produced xG close to their pre-match projections.
The model against the result
- FK Novi Pazar
- 32%
- Draw
- 32%
- FK IMT Beograd
- 36% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 10
- 13
- On target
- 5
- 7
- Inside the box
- 7
- 9
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.10
Recent form
2.04 xG created 1.57 xGA
- W 2.85 created, 6.21 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 1.17 created, 0.62 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
- D 2.63 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- D 0.60 created, 0.58 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.40 created, 0.60 conceded against FK Zemun
- L 1.58 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Partizan
1.49 xG created 1.24 xGA
- W 2.25 created, 0.71 conceded against FK Partizan
- D 2.87 created, 0.54 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- L 0.30 created, 2.23 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 0.60 created, 1.22 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- D 1.53 created, 1.43 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- W 1.37 created, 1.33 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged3 won2 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.30 | +5.2% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 1.90 | +3.3% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +2.6% | Won |
| FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals | 2.75 | +2.2% | Won |
| FK IMT Beograd to score | 1.36 | +1.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Novi Pazar | 31.9% | 38.5% | −6.6 pp | 3.14 |
| Draw | 31.9% | 28.0% | +3.9 pp | 3.14 |
| FK IMT Beograd | 36.2% | 33.6% | +2.7 pp | 2.76 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Novi Pazar to score | 72.4% | 72.3% | +0.1 pp | 1.38 |
| FK Novi Pazar not to score | 27.6% | 27.7% | −0.1 pp | 3.62 |
| FK IMT Beograd to score | 74.7% | 68.7% | +6.0 pp | 1.34 |
| FK IMT Beograd not to score | 25.3% | 31.3% | −6.0 pp | 3.96 |
| Both teams to score | 56.0% | 50.0% | +6.0 pp | 1.79 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.0% | 50.0% | −6.0 pp | 2.27 |
| FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals | 33.9% | 37.5% | −3.6 pp | 2.95 |
| FK Novi Pazar at most 1 goal | 66.1% | 62.5% | +3.6 pp | 1.51 |
| FK IMT Beograd 2+ goals | 37.2% | 33.7% | +3.4 pp | 2.69 |
| FK IMT Beograd at most 1 goal | 62.8% | 66.3% | −3.4 pp | 1.59 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.8% | 73.1% | +1.7 pp | 1.34 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 25.2% | 26.9% | −1.7 pp | 3.97 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.6% | 50.0% | −4.4 pp | 2.19 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 54.4% | 50.0% | +4.4 pp | 1.84 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- FK IMT Beograd sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 1 hour before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 1 hour before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.