Saturday, 24/10/2026 at 17:00
20d 15h to kick-offFK Partizan – FK Čukarički
Model updated 4 October, 00:30 Odds not yet available
What the model expects
- FK Partizan
- 62%
- Draw
- 22%
- FK Čukarički
- 16%
| FK Partizan | Draw | FK Čukarički | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fair odds | 1.61 | 4.57 | 6.26 |
- Total goals
- 3.51
- Over 2.5 goals
- 70%
- Both teams to score
- 68%
Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Model vs market
Market odds are not available for this match yet.
Why the model leans FK Partizan
62% FK Partizan to win
- Attack
- 2nd vs 11th
- FK Partizan attack v FK Čukarički defence
- Defence
- 6th vs 9th
- FK Partizan defence v FK Čukarički attack
- Recent xG form
- +1.11 vs -0.30
- xGD per match, last 6
- Projected goals
- 2.31 – 1.20
- FK Partizan v FK Čukarički
Team comparison
Season to date, per match, with each club's placing in the competition. The last row is the last 6 matches.
| Reading | FK Partizan | FK Čukarički |
|---|---|---|
| xG / match | (better) 2.36 · 3rd | 1.50 · 9th |
| xGA / match | (better) 1.55 · 8th | 1.67 · 9th |
| xGD / match | (better) +0.81 · 4th | -0.16 · 10th |
| xPts / match | (better) 1.81 · 4th | 1.32 · 10th |
| Last 6 xGD / match | (better) +1.11 | -0.31 |
The scorelines behind the model's numbers
No exact score is especially likely. The 3 most probable scorelines account for 29% of the model's distribution.
- FK Partizan clean sheet
- 27%
- FK Partizan 2+ goals
- 70%
- Under 2.5 goals
- 30%
- Both teams to score: no
- 32%
Most likely scorelines
- 2:1
- 10.9%
- 1:1
- 9.7%
- 3:1
- 8.6%
Check your bookmaker's price
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How value is calculated
Value is probability × odds − 1 — it pays on average and over the long run, not necessarily in this match. The model knows nothing of absences, motivation or the schedule.
Nothing you type is remembered.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Partizan sample
- 20 matches
- FK Čukarički sample
- 20 matches
- Home xG sample · FK Partizan
- 4 matches
- Away xG sample · FK Čukarički
- 4 matches
- Computed
- Sunday, 04/10/2026 at 00:30
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.