Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Radnički 1923 1:0 FK Radnik Surdulica
FK Radnički 1923 were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 45%. They won 1–0. The biggest difference was FK Radnički 1923's attack: 2.28 xG against 1.66 projected (+0.62). FK Radnik Surdulica produced 0.76 xG against 1.26 projected (−0.50).
The model against the result
- FK Radnički 1923
- 45% What happened
- Draw
- 28%
- FK Radnik Surdulica
- 27%
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Radnički 1923 produced 0.62 xG more than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 18
- 13
- On target
- 6
- 3
- Inside the box
- 14
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.13
- 0.06
Recent form
1.75 xG created 1.31 xGA
- D 0.76 created, 0.63 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
- D 3.02 created, 0.22 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 2.49 created, 0.49 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.18 created, 1.95 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 1.20 created, 2.42 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 0.87 created, 2.14 conceded against FK Vojvodina
1.93 xG created 2.18 xGA
- L 0.47 created, 5.14 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- W 1.63 created, 2.70 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.62 created, 0.20 conceded against FK Zemun
- D 2.02 created, 3.40 conceded against FK Partizan
- L 1.33 created, 1.37 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
- W 2.51 created, 0.26 conceded against FK Radnički Niš
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
9 qualified edges flagged1 won8 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 3.50 | +28.7% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.80 | +15.0% | Lost |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 1.53 | +14.5% | Lost |
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.85 | +6.5% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.25 | +3.6% | Lost |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to win | 3.90 | +3.6% | Lost |
| Draw | 3.60 | +2.2% | Lost |
| FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals | 2.00 | +1.9% | Lost |
| FK Radnički 1923 to score | 1.20 | +0.0% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički 1923 | 45.1% | 50.3% | −5.2 pp | 2.22 |
| Draw | 28.4% | 25.8% | +2.5 pp | 3.52 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica | 26.6% | 23.9% | +2.7 pp | 3.77 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički 1923 to score | 83.4% | 78.3% | +5.1 pp | 1.20 |
| FK Radnički 1923 not to score | 16.6% | 21.7% | −5.1 pp | 6.01 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica to score | 74.7% | 60.8% | +13.9 pp | 1.34 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica not to score | 25.3% | 39.2% | −13.9 pp | 3.95 |
| Both teams to score | 63.9% | 51.5% | +12.4 pp | 1.57 |
| Both teams not to score | 36.1% | 48.5% | −12.4 pp | 2.77 |
| FK Radnički 1923 2+ goals | 51.0% | 46.3% | +4.6 pp | 1.96 |
| FK Radnički 1923 at most 1 goal | 49.0% | 53.7% | −4.6 pp | 2.04 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica 2+ goals | 36.8% | 26.9% | +9.9 pp | 2.72 |
| FK Radnik Surdulica at most 1 goal | 63.2% | 73.1% | −9.9 pp | 1.58 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 75.0% | +7.9 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 25.0% | −7.9 pp | 5.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 51.3% | +6.3 pp | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 48.7% | −6.3 pp | 2.36 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
Show Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički 1923 sample
- 20 matches
- FK Radnik Surdulica sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.