Friday, 23/10/2026 at 18:00
Full timeFK Radnički Niš 0:2 FK Novi Pazar
FK Radnički Niš were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 40%. FK Novi Pazar won 2–0. The biggest difference was FK Radnički Niš's attack: 1.11 xG against 1.55 projected (−0.44). FK Novi Pazar produced 1.09 xG against 1.36 projected (−0.27).
The model against the result
- FK Radnički Niš
- 40%
- Draw
- 29%
- FK Novi Pazar
- 31% What happened
Data coverage Both teams have the full 20-match model window available.
Projected vs produced
FK Radnički Niš produced 0.44 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 15
- 10
- On target
- 0
- 6
- Inside the box
- 10
- 6
- xG per shot
- 0.07
- 0.11
Recent form
1.31 xG created 1.87 xGA
- D 0.63 created, 0.76 conceded against FK Radnički 1923
- L 2.20 created, 1.11 conceded against FK Mladost Lučani
- W 2.66 created, 1.02 conceded against OFK Beograd
- L 0.69 created, 3.66 conceded against FK Crvena zvezda
- L 1.44 created, 2.16 conceded against FK Vojvodina
- L 0.26 created, 2.51 conceded against FK Radnik Surdulica
1.77 xG created 0.76 xGA
- D 2.63 created, 0.92 conceded against FK Mačva Šabac
- W 1.08 created, 0.66 conceded against FK Železničar Pančevo
- D 0.60 created, 0.58 conceded against FK Čukarički
- D 3.40 created, 0.60 conceded against FK Zemun
- L 1.58 created, 0.51 conceded against FK Partizan
- L 1.33 created, 1.28 conceded against FK IMT Beograd
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Head to head
Pre-match model & market record
7 qualified edges flagged3 won4 lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 1.95 | +12.2% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.73 | +11.5% | Lost |
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 2.25 | +7.0% | Lost |
| Over 1.5 goals | 1.29 | +6.6% | Won |
| FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals | 2.63 | +6.4% | Won |
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 1.29 | +4.9% | Lost |
| FK Novi Pazar to score | 1.33 | +2.9% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš | 40.2% | 39.3% | +0.9 pp | 2.49 |
| Draw | 28.9% | 28.3% | +0.6 pp | 3.46 |
| FK Novi Pazar | 30.9% | 32.4% | −1.5 pp | 3.23 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Radnički Niš to score | 81.5% | 73.1% | +8.4 pp | 1.23 |
| FK Radnički Niš not to score | 18.5% | 26.9% | −8.4 pp | 5.42 |
| FK Novi Pazar to score | 77.2% | 70.9% | +6.3 pp | 1.30 |
| FK Novi Pazar not to score | 22.8% | 29.1% | −6.3 pp | 4.38 |
| Both teams to score | 64.5% | 53.7% | +10.9 pp | 1.55 |
| Both teams not to score | 35.5% | 46.3% | −10.9 pp | 2.82 |
| FK Radnički Niš 2+ goals | 47.6% | 41.1% | +6.5 pp | 2.10 |
| FK Radnički Niš at most 1 goal | 52.4% | 58.9% | −6.5 pp | 1.91 |
| FK Novi Pazar 2+ goals | 40.5% | 35.5% | +5.0 pp | 2.47 |
| FK Novi Pazar at most 1 goal | 59.5% | 64.5% | −5.0 pp | 1.68 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.9% | 73.1% | +9.8 pp | 1.21 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 17.1% | 26.9% | −9.8 pp | 5.84 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 48.7% | +8.9 pp | 1.74 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 42.4% | 51.3% | −8.9 pp | 2.36 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
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- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- FK Radnički Niš sample
- 20 matches
- FK Novi Pazar sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.