Sunday, 25/10/2026 at 12:00
Full timeChornomorets Odesa 0:0 Karpaty Lviv
Karpaty Lviv were the model's likeliest winner before kick-off at 55%. It finished 0–0. The biggest difference was Karpaty Lviv's attack: 0.69 xG against 1.71 projected (−1.02).
The model against the result
- Chornomorets Odesa
- 17%
- Draw
- 28% What happened
- Karpaty Lviv
- 55%
Data coverage One of these teams has only 7 matches in the model window, short of the 10 the model wants. Read the projection as a direction rather than as a number.
Projected vs produced
Karpaty Lviv produced 1.02 xG less than projected
Projected before kick-off Produced on the night
The shots behind it
- Shots
- 19
- 10
- On target
- 2
- 2
- Inside the box
- 5
- 4
- xG per shot
- 0.04
- 0.07
Recent form
0.54 xG created 1.67 xGA
- L 0.09 created, 1.99 conceded against LNZ Cherkasy
- W 1.01 created, 1.84 conceded against FC Kryvbas Kryvyi Rih
- D 0.46 created, 0.34 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- L 0.46 created, 1.90 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- D 0.93 created, 1.75 conceded against Obolon Kyiv
- L 0.31 created, 2.21 conceded against Metalist 1925
1.95 xG created 0.97 xGA
- D 1.42 created, 0.37 conceded against FC Livyi Bereh Kyiv
- L 2.05 created, 1.58 conceded against Shakhtar Donetsk
- W 2.39 created, 1.13 conceded against Kolos Kovalivka
- D 0.62 created, 1.31 conceded against Veres Rivne
- L 0.88 created, 0.87 conceded against Dynamo Kyiv
- D 4.35 created, 0.54 conceded against FC Epicentr Dunaivtsi
xG created xG conceded (xGA) W / D / L: the match result
Pre-match model & market record
5 qualified edges flagged3 won2 lost
- Won
- Won
- Lost
- Lost
- Won
View pre-match record Hide pre-match record
| Selection | Price | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Draw | 3.90 | +7.8% | Won |
| Karpaty Lviv at most 1 goal | 2.20 | +3.5% | Won |
| Chornomorets Odesa to score | 1.62 | +2.6% | Lost |
| Both teams to score | 1.83 | +1.4% | Lost |
| Under 2.5 goals | 2.05 | +1.3% | Won |
Pre-match model vs market
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets Odesa | 17.2% | 17.1% | +0.1 pp | 5.81 |
| Draw | 27.7% | 23.0% | +4.6 pp | 3.62 |
| Karpaty Lviv | 55.1% | 59.9% | −4.7 pp | 1.81 |
Other markets
| Outcome | Model | Market | Difference | Fair odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chornomorets Odesa to score | 63.5% | 57.7% | +5.9 pp | 1.57 |
| Chornomorets Odesa not to score | 36.5% | 42.3% | −5.9 pp | 2.74 |
| Karpaty Lviv to score | 84.5% | 83.0% | +1.5 pp | 1.18 |
| Karpaty Lviv not to score | 15.5% | 17.0% | −1.5 pp | 6.44 |
| Both teams to score | 55.3% | 50.0% | +5.3 pp | 1.81 |
| Both teams not to score | 44.7% | 50.0% | −5.3 pp | 2.24 |
| Chornomorets Odesa 2+ goals | 23.5% | 23.4% | +0.1 pp | 4.26 |
| Chornomorets Odesa at most 1 goal | 76.5% | 76.6% | −0.1 pp | 1.31 |
| Karpaty Lviv 2+ goals | 53.0% | 57.7% | −4.7 pp | 1.89 |
| Karpaty Lviv at most 1 goal | 47.0% | 42.3% | +4.7 pp | 2.13 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.3% | 76.6% | +1.7 pp | 1.28 |
| Under 1.5 goals | 21.7% | 23.4% | −1.7 pp | 4.60 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.6% | 53.9% | −3.4 pp | 1.98 |
| Under 2.5 goals | 49.4% | 46.1% | +3.4 pp | 2.02 |
Prices and probabilities are the ones stored before kick-off; nothing here is recalculated. Edge is the model's probability times the price, minus one, so a flagged outcome that lost is the ordinary case rather than a contradiction.
Model details
· 1 warningShow Hide
- Fit window
- the last 20 matches, recency weighted (a match 107 days old counts half)
- Chornomorets Odesa sample
- 7 matches
- Karpaty Lviv sample
- 20 matches
- Computed
- 2 hours before kick-off
- Prices taken
- 5 hours before kick-off
Warnings
- Chornomorets Odesa has only 7 matches in the database. Below 10 matches the estimate is very unreliable.
Limitations
The model reads expected goals and nothing else. It does not know the lineups, who is injured or suspended, what either side has to play for, the weather, or how congested the schedule around this match is.